Biden is 1 of the weakest presidents in my lifetime. Can't even get the Saudi in line while we basically supply all of their weapons and they will be dead without us.
I can't believe I read through all of these posts. So much emotional garbage it sometimes surprises me that it's coming from traders who are supposed to be grounded and methodical. Just shows, you never know what you get when you take someone out of their comfort zone. It would behoove some of you to remove yourselves from your national blinders and consider how other nations behave in their national interest, regardless of ideology or embrace of values you're not comfortable with. I'm not supportive of Saudi Arabia one bit, yet I can understand their willingness to diversify their monetary strategy, especially when China is clearly not interested in modifying foreign behaviors while we, the US, insist on behavior modification with all our trading deals. Supply and demand... is that so complicated to understand? If we're going to apply moral or ethical standards to our governmental dealings, then we have to accept that we may not become or remain the favored trading partner. While our standards work well enough when others want to trade with us, it doesn't work so well when competition is fierce. So, do we lower our standards or do we forego the opportunity? One thing I know from having been around a few years and traveled a good part of the world, it's that our US standards are often so high that we can't even abide by them. And our standards are so intertwined with national politics that we insist on rules that are sometimes ridiculous, either because they come from the woke Left or the woke Right.
Ukraine and NATO got the war they wanted. Anyone remember the Budapest Memorandum where the US, France, UK, Russia and China were signatories? NATO made Ukraine give up its nuclear missiles to Russia in return for security guarantees not worth the paper it was printed on? Ukraine asked multiple times to become a NATO member then. NATO refused. Then, Putin massed 190,000 Russian troops on Ukraine border and Biden, Macron, Scholz all met Putin 2x, Johnson 1 x and Lavrov and Blinken another 4 times? In all that time, Lavrov complained that NATO ignored Russia's demand for security guarantees. Hell, if NATO leaders, Russia, Ukraine as well as Estonia, Latvia, Poland (all on Russia's borders) agreed on: 1) Ukraine being neutral but, if Russia invades Ukraine, NATO can come in and fight on Ukraine side, 2) all tactical nuclear weapons on Estonia, Latvia, Poland removed from its bases and moved inland to UK, France, Germany. How to enforce? US and Russia both had inspectors for SALT treaties 1 & 2? Have inspectors in Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Poland. Putin probably, would have taken that as a win and stood down. Instead, NATO threatened him with numerous sanctions and nothing else. Putin, probably, said to himself, why am I even bothering with these NATO idiots?
Saudis, UAE, South Korea and Japan can all get a new master if US is not supporting them. So US is happily paying the price for it. You look at US spending budget. US military spending is about $750BB, 3.7% of GDP. China is about $250BB and 1.7% of GDP. Russia only $61BB and 4.3% GDP. But most of the US military spending is used to protect other countries. This is why Trump wanted Japan, Germany and S. Korea to pick up the tabs, not US footing all the bills. US basically provides free security for most of them, for "strategic" reasons. We spent like $20BB each year on Afghanistan alone. No matter what a great country it is. If it can't manage it wisely, it will decline in relative terms. China is not a global police and it does not station any military all over the world and be the 2nd world police. Yet it spent wisely on its navy, airforce. And its defense spending is only 1.7% GDP (give or take). It certainly has the capability to ramp up its military spending. If China does the same 3.7% GDP on military like US does, then its defense spending will more than double what it is now. Imagine how many aircraft carriers it can build with a faster speed than what is already has. With the close Russia-China tie, most of the Russian advanced aircraft and engine technologies will be transferred to China. Then its air force will speed up the building. If, IF, Taiwan ever wants to make a move, there is no chance that US or Asian NATO will come to the rescue. It will be just like another Ukraine. World power does not even agree that Taiwan is a country, but a part of China. It is close to impossible to think that Germany, France will send 10,000 strong army from Europe to Taiwan to defend Taiwan. That is not even feasible. Everyone has to think about any end-game. Is the price too dear to pay? US is far away in another continent, never touched by any major wars. The only threat it faces is the nuclear war. But what about the countries in Europe. And Taiwan people. Even Australia is not wise to be the hawk in the West camp. US just does not have the capability continue to be the only world super power, and the world police. It is too much burden.
I mostly agree with you, although I think China’s Communist party would not survive a war with Taiwan. China’s Communist party weighs its cost benefits. It is more important for them to rule China than it is to overcome Taiwan but lose control of the mainland. There are many Chinese who do not support the CCP, they only fear it. Chinese killing Chinese would be a great tragedy to the Chinese people, regardless of political affiliation. Like Russia, China would no longer be able to trade with the world and their export oriented economy would collapse. Yes, they could retaliate far better than Russia, but that would be the opportunity for the nations of the world to take back the manufacturing they handed to China. It's not in the economic interest for China to start a war. Politically, I can see why China wants to take Taiwan back. But their chance was many decades ago. Taiwan today is a truly independent nation in all but China’s approval. Their ability to fight and defend the island is as strong as Ukraine's motivation. China has very few allies, none able to project beyond their border without risk of annihilation. Who will China fight? The US? Japan? The nations of Southeast Asia? India? Europe? All of them? Let's be real...Xi will be replaced by the party well before he becomes the Putin of Asia.
Taiwan should learn from Ukraine now and instead, of buying fighter jets like F-16s which the Chinese will obliterate with their huge number of fighter jets, they should be buying the more advanced, UK manpads which is an upgrade of the Stingers, Tow Anti-Tank, Medium distance missiles to fire at ships, surface to ship missiles and cruise missiles if they can get their hands on it. That would deter a Chinese invasion more than anything else. They cannot expect the US and NATO to come to their defense. Better still, being an advanced technological country, they should be developing their own hypersonic and cruise missiles and stockpiling them for their defense.