Saidi Arabia accomplishes a lot with $30 oil. US energy independence will not be allowed with the tensions in the Middle East. Can you imagine $28 oil , a low US rig count and ISIS knocking at the Saudi door? Who's youre daddy? Two years the situation will ease cause Hillary will be fixin things. Can there be a better trade to fade this new king for $40 oil?
Thanks for the analysis. Now at what price are we talking about starting to play for a upmove to 40$? This is the first question. The second will follow when we are at this given price.
doesn't anybody believe in supply and demand anymore? $70 ob by Dec 2016. Not bad for just a commodity. Need a lot of money and a lot of patience to buy it right here though. I'd rather wait flat. Getting in too late is always better for me.
Hahaha... with all the articles i read about the surplus of oil, i also could not help but think of all the PEAK OIL stuff out there not too long ago....... i understand high prices can be self-defeating but still....... it's amazing how quick things go from "we are running out, $10 gasoline a certainty" to this situation now.... LOL i wonder what will happen to all the big money oil jobs being thrown around???? i heard stories of boomtowns like Fort MacMurray in western canada with young guys making well into 6 figs for tradesman jobs... lots of money sloshing around and population of many towns more than doubling in 5 years time.... if low oil prices stick around the boom might go bust....
A simple minded opinion problaly unshared, that the security of Saudi Arabia is served by maintaining US dependence on Saudi oil. The US oil industry would have to be consolidated/re-structered at lower oil prices. US production would fall in response,tipping the balance back to Saudi oil supply. Once again our interest would align with Saudi's for stability in the regin requiring a continued,strong US presence. Just like old times. Low oil prices also weaken the abilities of adversaries of the Saudi's. I could be wrong, but i beleive that Iran, Russia, Syrian regime(doesnt Saudi support rebel cause), ISIS are at the top of the list. I beleive the Saudis can bear austerity better than adversaries. c Continued US sanctions of Iran and Russia are a factor as well towards the actors to endure low oil income. I beleive the collapse of oil in June was more geo political than supply and demand although the timing did square well with renewed European deflation fears. I think that we got there fast but will be here for a long time. The reference to "fading" was to the breif rally in oil after the death of the king. Whos your daddy, is a reference to a quip by Pedro Martinez, Hall of fame pitcher, when he was dominated by the Yankees in deference to the Yankees. Renewed, strong US interest in the region is the daddy. You must admit the condition of the US oil industry and the ongoing Middle East wars are huge events and unknowns at this time. So i think $40 makes sense as we tap the bottom of the 50-45 range for the 2nd time.