Well at the moment it's trading at 19 for her to win the nomination and you're looking at a potential long holding period with decent volatility until you can realize the gains. So if there's a big pop in that contract to like the 40's i'd probably bet against it. But the real trade I want is to bet against her winning the presidency after she wins the nomination cause at that point it would be a new contract with a much shorter lifespan. And I would imagine it would at least for a time be trading in the 50's at which point I would go massively short. I think I'd just throw caution and any form of risk management to the wind and just pile on.
Carter and Bush senior lost their elections partly due the bad economy(One could argue Mccain as well). It does look like a coinflip at this point