Why not bet already? It's not like there is any other Republican candidate with more chance than Palin. Cmon, who else is out there who could get the nomination? Romney? LOL. No matter which no-hoper they pick, they'll be outclassed in the debates and/or speeches by Obama.
This is even more ludicrous than Free Thinker's post. Obama not running for election? Where is this serious "talk" taking place, at the John Birch Society annual shindig? Guys, can you please go and sell some Obama on Intrade? I would LOVE to put on more size at better prices. Pretty please?
Obviously you are illiterate when it comes to our political news over here. There is actually a lot of talk on the left about Obama not running for the sake of passing key democratic legislation. Obama would go down as a hero to the left and he would save the democratic party as well as give them a chance to pass the very progressive legislation that they want. If he stays, they get gridlock and no legislation passed. And they risk him losing in 2012 in which his legacy is destroyed, the democratic party goes into hibernation for the next 3 elections and none of their legislation gets passed. Come on dude, you are a trader right, think outside the box.
Cmon, when was the last time a sitting president stood aside? It's very rare and normally only happens when some disaster or scandal occurs, and when there is a public clamour for someone to resign. Obama standing aside goes against everything we know about the sort of people who run for political office. They are not known for their lack of ambition, or putting principles ahead of power. You are thinking as though Obama is a normal person, but he's not - normal people don't run for president. There's also the issue that he is the first black president, so even if for some reason he did feel embattled, he will probably feel like he has an obligation to stay on and not go down in history as the first black American to enter the White House...and to abandon it as a quitter. Gridlock isn't ideal for the president, but it's not bad either. It gives him a convenient excuse for not getting things done "Oh, it's the Republicans blocking my proposals". He can still get things done internationally, take credit once the economy eventually recovers, and a few pretty speeches will be sufficient for people to think he's doing ok. Clinton did alright in the eyes of centrists and the left, despite gridlock, and he had a self-imposed scandal and investigation to handle too. Squeaky clean Obama can do just as well as that, without the sex scandals, suicides, sexual harrassment, bribes and dodgy cattle trading. Finally, if you don't believe me, just imagine this - how would Michelle Obama react if Barack told her he was quitting? You think that ballbreaker would let him throw away the White House? Go ask your married friends what they think about how well that would go down in the Obama household
Well no one knows whats going on behind closed doors or what deals are being worked out. Of course Obama doesn't WANT to not run for re-election, it's just that he doesn't want to lose either or even worse, be challenged by the left ala Howard Dean. Yes, Dean has got his eye on the White House and guess what, he has the far left progressives behind him. Obama's problem is not that he has lost the independents (which he has) or the women (which he has), but rather, he is losing his base. That base VOTES! They have money and they carry a big stick. They want their policies. Just like the far right who doesn't care about winning or losing, they care about their ideology hence Christine O'Donnell and Sharon Angel (who both had no chance of winning). The far right and the far left want action. They don't care about the theatrics of politics. The democratic base is very very angry at Obama and they don't want to vote republican, they don't want to stay home and not vote and they don't want to vote 3rd party. They want to vote for "their" democrat. And their guy in 2012 will be Howard Dean. How embarrassing would "that" be for the first Black President to get abandoned by his own base and voted out in a primary challenge. It would go down in history as utterly embarrassing. And choosing not to run for re-election would not be quitting as he is not required to serve two terms. I do admit that we are not quite there yet in terms of how bad things need to get for Dean to jump into the race. But I do believe he is preparing and sitting on the sidelines waiting to pounce. In all honesty, if un-employment improves and the economy recovers, you are right, this will all be much ado about nothing. But if the economy weakens, if Obama does not follow through on the removal of troops from Afghanistan, and the jobs do not come, then it's game on!
I would think Hillary Clinton is a far bigger threat to Obama than Dean. If Obama's negatives get solidly above 50%, look for the democrats to panic and start thinking about alternatives.
Nope. Back to what I said, what hurt Hillary was her support of the Iraq war which is exactly the reason why progressives chose Obama over her. Dean on the other hand was very vocally against the Iraq War and supports single payer health care. Dean is the man. If you are a true progressive, not a ditto head liberal, but a real progressive, you want Dean in 2012, not Hillary, not Obama.