SanDisk is trading at 40x eps. With NAND prices to fall another 30% to 40% by their own admission, it looks like their stock should logically fall, at a minimum, by another $20 per share, and possibly more, if margins don't improve by the 2nd half of this year. When did SanDisk become so richly valued, on the basis of being of 'growth' stock, when it is really a supplier of a commodity priced good that is in glut supply, and where the price of its product is expected to fall by nearly half in the coming months? 40x eps, what the hell is the market thinking? SanDisk should be trading at around $16 bucks a share, in reality. SanDisk Will Trim Work Force to Counter Falling Prices http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/17/business/17sandisk.html By REUTERS Published: February 17, 2007 SAN FRANCISCO, Feb. 16 (Reuters) â The SanDisk Corporation said Friday that it would cut 10 percent of its work force and trim executive salaries to compensate for a recent collapse in prices for memory chips, sending its shares down sharply in after-hours trading. It was the second recent warning about oversupply in the volatile memory chip industry. Micron Technology said last week that prices for memory chips used in consumer electronics would drop 30 percent to 40 percent this quarter. SanDisk, which competes with Micronâs Lexar division in making flash memory chips for devices like digital cameras and media players, said it expected to cut prices on many products by 30 percent to 40 percent to keep market share. SanDisk said industrywide prices for NAND flash memory chips had fallen about 50 percent over the last two months because of excess supply and seasonally weak demand in the first part of the year. Fears of a NAND memory glut have sent shares in its manufacturers sliding. In the last month, Micronâs stock has fallen 11.5 percent while SanDisk is down 9.6 percent. The company said it would cut about 250 jobs globally, trim executive pay by 10 percent to 20 percent, and freeze other employeesâ salaries.
I agree. I can't wait for tech stocks to get crushed, so I can swoop in and buy them before the next cycle starts to build. I do not know if that will be this September, or next August, though, based on macroeconomic conditions.
It's amazing the NDX is holding up reasonably well in a sideways pattern while many of its components look like they were beaten black and blue. NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, MU, SNDK. It's like the house of horrors. Wouldn't touch any of these with a 10ft. pole.
There was selling going on even during regular trading hours with the stock hitting a low of 40.04 before closing at 40.13 down by 2.48%. People were aware of the forthcoming news release even before the actual release. The timing of the news release just a couple of minutes after the market closed is shady at best while reeking of foul play and manipulation.
I dont think it matters in a bull market, most of the leaders that have traded sideways will continue to do so, how the NDX 100 conitnues to trade higher is beyond me. Im sure it will break 1850 soon and head to new highs above 1860 area. As for memory prices they will continue to fall for quite sometime.