Another week, another demonstration in Iran. This time its the elected institution protesting a move by the appointed arm of the government to strike out the name of some 2000 candidates for the upcoming elections. Most observers (media) are seeing this as a black and white power struggle between the two camps in Iran. They are totally missing the subtle machinations going on beneath the surface. This article exposes that well: http://www.iranian.com/Opinion/2004/January/Majlis/index.html
The way I understand it is that reformist control of parliament is essentially useless. That doesn't sound too encouraging.
Yes, it is. And no it doesn't sound encouraging. Those with real power understand that the people are beginning to realize this ruse. Therefore, they have begun this new charade so that they can end it by 'giving in' to their demands and allowing some of those candidates to stand and perhaps be elected. They assume that the sheeple will then celebrate such an outcome as a victory and return to the polls. What they fear the most is not the reformers, for they are but toothless tigers, but the growing realization in people that voting is a useless act. If, or when, the Iranians understand this, then they will also understand that the only way to return meaning to their vote is to remove the present dictatorship. This is why those in power keep a sharp eye on the apathy level of the general population. This latest move is simply an attempt to rouse the public from their stupor and attempt to bring some semblence of interest to their faces.
Another revolution then? Isn't something like 70% of the population under the age of 30? Assuming the youth is generally dissatisfied, with demograhics like that, it seems like the current regime's days are numbered, the only question being when exactly, right? Given that democratic procedures aren't likely to yield results for reformists, what other avenues could they pursue? Just how strong is the religious conservative grip on power there? Who supports them? For example, there are strong Islamic/-ist undercurrents in Turkey and in Turkish politics, however they are kept at bay by the strong secular traditions of a Turkish army that would have no qualms with intervening to keep Turkey a secular state. Do similar institutions (as the army, for eg) exist in Iran that maintain the theocratic status quo, even in light of strong opposition to it?
And right on cue Khamenei (the guy with real power) comes on stage and announces that they will 'reconsider' the move to remove the candidacy of those 2000 people. Lets see if the rest of this tragi-comedy plays out with such timing!