Saki's Forex Reversal Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by sakimonohito, Jul 2, 2004.

  1. EUR/USD B 1.2176 Limit 1.2500
    GBP/USD B 1.8124, 1.7953, 1.7767* Limit 1.8125
    USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611 Limit 1.3110
    EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795 Limit .6570
    GBP/JPY B 200.10, 196.90 Limit 200
    NZD/USD B .6580, .6486 Limit .6740
    EUR/AUD S 1.7502 Limit 1.6875
     
    #71     Sep 15, 2004
  2. GBP/USD B 1.7767 Sold 1.7935 +168
    Indicating 4 hour overbought levels again.

    Current Positions
    EUR/USD B 1.2176 Limit 1.2500
    GBP/USD B 1.8124, 1.7953 Limit 1.8125
    USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611 Limit 1.3110
    EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795 Limit .6570
    GBP/JPY B 200.10, 196.90 Limit 200
    NZD/USD B .6580, .6486 Limit .6740
    EUR/AUD S 1.7502 Limit 1.6875
     
    #72     Sep 17, 2004
  3. EUR/USD B 1.2176 Limit 1.2400
    GBP/USD B 1.8124, 1.7953 Limit 1.8125
    USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611, 1.2539* Limit 1.2800
    EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795 Limit .6700
    GBP/JPY B 200.10, 196.90 Limit 200
    NZD/USD B .6580, .6486 Limit .6700
    EUR/AUD S 1.7502 Limit 1.7300

    I will be going on an extended break soon so I have swallowed my pride and tightened my targets a bit on several pairs, impossible to go away and feel relaxed with so many trades on.
     
    #73     Sep 21, 2004
  4. EUR/USD B 1.2176 Closed 1.2297 +121*
    EUR/AUD S 1.7502 Limit 1.7300 +202
    GBP/JPY B 196.90 Closed 198.62 +172

    Current Positions
    GBP/USD B 1.8124, 1.7953 Limit 1.8125
    USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611, 1.2539 Limit 1.2800
    EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795 Limit .6700
    GBP/JPY B 200.10 Limit 200
    NZD/USD B .6580, .6486 Limit .6700


    *Had a exit signal after the fed Tuesday 40 pips higher, but I was holdin out for my limit target. Sometimes I am one stubborn piker!:mad:
     
    #74     Sep 23, 2004
  5. NZD/USD B .6580, .6486 Sold .6687 +107, +201

    Current Positions
    GBP/USD B 1.8124, 1.7953 Limit 1.8125
    USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611, 1.2539 Limit 1.2800
    EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795 Limit .6700
    GBP/JPY B 200.10 Limit 200.10
     
    #75     Sep 24, 2004
  6. GBP/JPY B 200.10 Limit 200.13 +3*

    But also booked about 50 pips in accumulated interest as I held this position for about 4 weeks. Collected interest is my cushion to prevent stopping out of trades which don't bounce/sell off after entry. In this case, it was almost 700 pips before the trend reversed, but, it worked out, it has yet to NOT work out. Should I consider this a stroke of luck? Or is my system viable? Only time will give me the answer.

    However, it seems all the systems which use this kind of "averaging in" methodology only go bust because of leverage. I read all the books on LTCM, and those guys have all regrouped after their catastrophic blowout using the same strategies. The only modification is their more reasonable use of leverage I intend to keep my leverage at no more than 20:1. On futures this is somewhat dangerous, but on Forex, especially mini lots, I think its somewhat conservative for the timeframe I am trading. I have attached a chart of the GBP/JPY trade so you can see the drawdown I took to cash out.

    Note that the Daimyo didn't hit 100 yet, however when I am in such a large position, I want to take profits at the first indication that the trend may be reversing. So I exited when the upper BB was pierced.
     
    #76     Sep 24, 2004
  7. GBP/USD B 1.8124, 1.7953 Limit 1.8125 +1, +172

    Current Positions*
    USD/CHF B 1.2661, 1.2611, 1.2539 Limit 1.2800
    EUR/GBP S .6690, .6707, .6754, .6795 Limit .6700

    *Now I can travel without worry that I will come back to a major portfolio shock. Will leave next Monday for about 4 weeks, will explore the netherworlds of south-east asia and all its delights!
     
    #77     Sep 28, 2004
  8. surf2liv

    surf2liv

    i am checking your Jun USDCAD Murrey levels...do you use negative murrrey levels..too bad you are taking off to Asia


    Should I use the calendar days of June for JUly...or if today is july 15 then use last 30days jun 14 to jul 14?
     
    #78     Sep 28, 2004
  9. surf2liv

    surf2liv

    #79     Sep 28, 2004
  10. Thanks for your question.

    The USD/CAD levels I am using haven't been violated, -2/8ths is 1.2656.

    And to answer your question...I struggled with this for a few months and then realized that if the levels were violated, they were usually violated by at least 2 more frames, so the point is if you update the levels everyday, you are likely to be averaging in too soon if a sell or buy is generated with your new levels.

    Remember the priority of signals on my system, Daimyo is always my primary indicator. It measures the current average of price, Murrey Levels only measure the past levels of price. Which do you think is going to be more accurate? Murrey levels are helpful in determining where trends will likely reverse, but when it is wrong, it is thankfully, very wrong so its easier to disregard than Daimyo.

    If the MMl's are violated completely, its best to wait for a new Daimyo signal before referring to MMl's.

    PS. Your link is to a registration page, not a chart.
     
    #80     Sep 29, 2004