Hello, Is anybody using SafirX Trader Assistant which is an addon for Tradestation using fuzzy logic to generate signals of buy and sell ? What do you think about it ? I have just downloaded the demo on www.sirtrade.com and I am testing it on DAX Future and the results are a bit too fantastic to be believable... Thanks for your comments, George
Let everybody know the results when you get done testing the demo. Or keep a daily diary on the board here.
your question brings up a question. has anybody or does anybody know somebody who has succesfully trained a computer to trade profitably. I have read losts of articles about it but I have never heard someone say they are making money doing it real time. I know systems traders who make money, however they all seem to use simple systems.
From 1995 to 2000 I ran four systems that I trained to trade foreign exchange spot and derivatives at a US securities firm. We had negligble transaction costs and execution desks covering all time zones. The returns were consistently about 28% / year with a s.d. of 5% or less. The system had only one discretionary override and was used four times in five years - solely to reduce risk / take profits off the table. The systems were all short-term (1 - 10 biz days) I'm in the process (tedious, difficult) of settting up variants of the systems to trade equities and their derivatives. I've found that simple is truly better. Adding dof usually lowers reliability by increasing likelihood of curvefit. In sample / out of sample, walk-forward testing is an absolute must. A large number of US securities firms have 'boutique' shops dedicated to exploring quantitative trading techniques. Then there are the hedge funds (DE Shaw, Moore Cap, Caxton), CTAs (JWH, Dunn Cap, EMC) and energy firms (Enron, Aquila) that system trade(d) as well. Cheers
And do you get the fuzzy logic rules behind the system? Can you trust a black box system? I mean you just don't know when things will go wrong if it comes across some market conditions it can't adapt to.