Those who jump in the water first are usually the first ones to die. My advice: Wait. You don't need to catch the exact top.
Only thing safe to say, all humans will died one day. I been going short/hedged Indexes for over 2.5 years, couple times they have hit first targets and then eventually get stopped out at breakeven and the rest get equaled out cause losses in Indexes and hedges kick in to equal out. I am still very long and few short in stocks. I am often way too early in trading long term commodities, I have back tested enough to know my account would be wiped out if not for hedges. So you going against the major trend of Indexes without insurance, well..... Automation averages per year 5-15% being correct on long term signals, once new trend starts, dance options around position, but deeper into trend, that becomes too dicey. Granted, if you do find the top, it will be incredible ride, but it been 4 dozen plus attempts for me already and zero for 48+, so win/loss percentage not very good, ROFLMAO HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL
I read once, years ago, that shorting penny stocks was the only best way to trade penny stocks, and I kind of agree with that, but would add, shorting penny stocks was the best method for shorting - period. Shorting indexes or well capitilized stocks - "no no". Intraday trading is different, am refering to over longer periods.
shorting the index not so much. But perhaps shorting individual stocks that have already broken down on the charts.
Yea I forget in a fed fueled bull market nothing matters but the fed and their historical low interest rates and free trillions.
Proof... "Don't trade without stops/hedges". TRY to "let your profits run", as best you can manage. But ALWAYS make sure to cut your losses short! 1 or 2 big traps can ruin a lifetime of successes. Don't give it a chance to happen to you.