Hmm, I assumed that with your 12000+ posts you would be able to present us the bigger picture but looks to me we get all caught in the little details: Sure, there are hundreds of trend following systems that lose money, and other hundreds of xxx-systems that also lose money. I thought we could all agree on the argument that the actual trading approach makes only 20-30% of the success/failure of a trade. The rest is money management/risk mgt and keeping emotions aside. There are some excellent trend followers and there are some excellent trend reversal followers, and, and, and. But I think a high success rate in the end all comes down to cutting losses short, riding profitable positions, position sizing, and money management. So, what you are posting above AGAIN is picking couple guys who applied systems and failed. So? What does that tell you? That trend following systems dont work? Hmm, again, let me ask you what makes you draw such conclusions? It sounds to me that you are preoccupied with a statistical bias not others. Another quick hint: SAC is no1 when it comes to "grey zone" insider trading. What do you, first of all, define as "insider trading" or illegal practices? Spreading rumors about some firms right after shorting it? Going to the press to disparage CEOs/CFOs and publicising previously private conversations between the fund and companies? Threaten sell-side desks to immediately stop conducing any business if they would not ALWAYS call the fund, here SAC, first with whatever rumors/news are hitting the tape? Let me asure you that SAC has conduced any of the above countless times, some of which (esp. the last point) is well documented and proven. I would like to challenge you to come forth with statements that can be backed up with facts and not masking pure speculations and opinions as facts.
Not so quick, mate. So you start by saying that he made some mistakes 20 years ago. Then you move on by telling us what happened in 2003 with a 10mm holding? Hmm, why dont you tell ALL OF US here what happened to the billions of dollars he managed and made for himself during that time? I would be very curious. Not sure why you even mention something in the 10mm league in regards to Richard Dennis? THats the same as saying , hey , chch66, managed 56 cents one day, and guess what, he lost it all......
So you're saying you get wiped out if you bet big and are wrong? Is that why trend following specifically is doomed to fail by definition? Doesn't that rather apply to all trading strategies and - more generally - to any brick and mortar type business? Based on this theory, why would trend following be more prone to excessive risk of ruin than say a contrarian trading strategy (= trading against the market, a strategy Niederhoffer seemed to have been a proponent of)?
actually, a similar argument could be made for niederh@ffer. he has made far far more for his investors , over the years, that he has lost--despite the spectacular drawdowns. have you ever looked at richard dennis fee structure? surf
Demark is a vendor. Cut and paste from his site. The first line alone makes me ill. http://www.tomdemark.com/ "These billion-dollar secrets are now available and ready to be included in your trading arsenal... Yes, these are the identical indicators to those being sold and used by an exclusive clique of market power houses at astronomical high-priced fees. These are the identical, unique indicators programmed and supported by the same remarkable team of individuals who supply similar services to the financial elite. The exclusive opportunity to learn and to apply these indicators and to create trading strategies has never been closer to your reach and within such an affordable price. Now the DeMark IndicatorsTM are fully presented, explained, and described in a number of products; such as books, booklets, video seminars, and software programs. Each and every product has been specially priced to fit any traders' budget. " I dont give a fuck who`s payroll he is on. Without selling his "system" he would be a nobody.
Tokyo, I think you need to visit your facts regarding Dennis. He has managed public money 2 times in his career. The first was the debacle through Drexel that I referred to (lost about 180mln). The second was the small fund through Mesirow a few years back. As a Chicago based trader and member for 15 + years of both the Cme and Cbot, I know a couple of things. Richard ran up a small amount into -- at least -- $150mln using only his own capital as a local trader. Still the best performance I have ever heard of using and betting one's own dollars. However, he ran into major problems over the last 20 years -- and unfortunately has given a substantial amount of that money back. His biggest weakness -- the SP futures market...and he keeps on playing in it, showing that even the best have psychological issues to work through. Look up the facts about his public record and you will realize he never managed "billions."
Bottom line is SOROS, TUDOR JONES, and STEVIE COHEN utilize mr. demark. In addition, check his website--material sold via the biggest data providers on earth including the mighty bloomberg. name another vendor with all these names promoting same.... name another vendor who is utilized by the biggest names in finance?? its speaks volumes. surf