Kind of like cherry picking a 3 year period out of 26 year period of JWH's right? You are beyond ridiculous
For EPrado and Surdo: Before you guys convict Holly Becker and her husband Michael Zimmerman (who traded for SAC) right here on ET, perhaps you should have done a little more extensive research: These charges that you have cited were eventually dropped: http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-100541275.html Here's another story of interest, written about a year before the charges were actually dropped: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10125862/2/secs-holly-becker-case-slowly-fades-away.html You guys were very quick to go with the first story you could find on google eh? LOL. OldTrader
exactly.. that is why surf should stop bringing up this silly argument about trend following. Just about every spot on the chart could have been used for either trend - mean reversion or pull back trading. You could have mixed and matched - scaled in or scaled out. But I would like to point out that surf should take his journalistic credentials more seriously. (he has written interesting stuff) and approach this subject with more objectivity. Is entirely unacceptable to criticize the poster on this thread for pointing out JWH and Dunn --as cherry picked.... when those were the guys surf was citing for years as evidence that trend following does not work. Surfs carried the flag for VN and VN's trading beliefs for years. It is time for Surf to admit VN was a perhaps the worst trader of all time - and that VN's anti trend following beliefs were juvenile.
First, you do not have to work on a desk to understand what you are talking about and secondly, it doesn't matter if I am OK with it or not, it is going to happen no matter what. SAC, whether they do this or not, is not the only firm or traders "manipulating" the market for their gain. Deal with it and move on. I am not saying to engage in this activity. What I am saying is what does this have to do with you? Who cares what SAC or whatever anyone else is doing. Acknowledge that it is happening and develop trading plans for what the market gives you. If you make money now, perhaps if all this stuff wasn't going on you might not since the whole dynamic of the market would change absent this manipulation. Perhaps you would make more. Who knows. There is ALWAYS someone who is going to know more then you or get information before you.
You have me all wrong, I made a substantial amount of coin as an insitutional sales trader, and if it were not for dirt bags like SAC, paying sizeable commissions, I would not be able to live the lifestyle I do now as an independant trader. I respect that Mister Cohen treats the sell side like high priced Vegas whores. Thanks for the civilized response that actually makes sense! good trading, el surdo
This thread has generated a couple of ideas, which when applied to one's own trading, can generate very usefull and profitable trading ideas. 1. All markets are moved (read: manipulated) by factors which are beyond the control of most individual traders. So, while it is well nigh impossible (if not impractical) to affect (or attempt to affect) the state of any given market, 1. All markets trend and mean revert. By correctly identifying which state a market is in during the time-frame/fractal that you trade you can position yourself to reap tremendous rewards.
thanks for the kind words jem. My observation indicates that VN's overly competitive nature, obsession with being the best in the world, and willingness to take monster risks to reach these goals is what cuts him down. it's the same sword that got him to the top on 2 occasions, once after being wiped out, a feat never seen in the annuals of fund managers/traders--top ranking to a complete wipeout, back again to top ranking. i will not be surprised if VN climbs out again for another shot at a world class ranking in this business. i don't believe his views on trend following are juvenile. actually, they make alot of sense. trend following is the same as buy and hold--sure you can make money if you guess right and pyramid into a trend, you can also guess wrong, pyramid in, and get wiped out. bottom line is, VERY VERY VERY FEW traders can make substanial money without taking substantial risk. sure many can grind out a living, but to get wealthy--even to a niederhoffer scale ( he is a minnow to the truly rich) risk is a must, and risk can cut you down to the same scale it builds you up. let's not rip on those who have the inner fortitude to embrace risk and reach for greatness. surf
Can you repost this chart going back several years when crude was $10 - that would make a much stronger and impossible to refute argument.
he has lost hundreds of millions of dollars for investors by essentially playing Russian Roulette. The only reason he has investors is he is very good at promoting his game. His business model was and is a con game. (I have seen no evidence to the contrary). He ran a game of three card monte for the well to do. His only competition for greatest wall steet scammers was that other bunch of Greenwich hustlers LTCM. I am quite sure in any basic options book they will have graph which show the risks and rewards for selling premium. If the book has any commentary at all it will explain that selling premium produces an excellent income stream until you blow up. So to achieve top rankings what you need to do is promote your fund bring in lots of money and sell premium until you blow up. If you call that trading - you are in the wrong business.