Today was the second time I've seen waggie mention it, and so I ask, but got no reply. So I'm going to start by hi+lo+fridays close/3, and go from there, If I have time I may add 1 or 2 moving ave. to my excel sheets where I keep past pivot numbers, and see what that brings up. Other than that, beats the hell out of me
TS, Before I change my charts for tomorrow, I'll give this a shot and post my 5 min ES chart from today (1.29). What I try to do is identify areas where a price level initiated some type of action. This could be a rejection of the price level or bounce/support of the level. I'll start with a 60 minute chart and then try to fine tune it with a 15 min. chart. These areas are the white lines on the chart. These are more or less "zones" and have a +/- factor of ~ .50 on either side. So for example, the 1133.25 area would between 33.75 and 32.75. The key for me is if these price areas have been "hit" more than 3 times then they take on more significance. Next I will add PD H/L/C (green,red,blue) and finally the floor pivots (grey). During the trading day, I'll mark the H/L of the first half hour. For me at least, the better opportunities occur when 1. Price enters one of these zones 2. There is another actionable level (usually a pivot or PD H/L). I also like to watch volume on a smaller time frame to see if I can spot climactic selling/buying. My trading buddies tell me that if I draw enough lines, price is bound to hit something.
I don't want to spark any arguments here or prompt anybody to hijack the thread (which isn't likely since there aren't that many people interested in S/R anyway, much less S/D), but I do want to make a few points while this particular discussion is in the embryonic stage. First, Sulong, I agree about the LRHs/LRLs and the bar intervals. They're like planets. When, for example, an R level on the daily lines up with an R level on the 60m which lines up with an R level on the 5 or whatever, then you better be ready. The 5 alone, however, may mean nothing, much less the 1. So unless one's tactics are geared specifically toward those shorter bar intervals, he can lose a lot of money unnecessarily. Pivot levels? Maybe. I'd put them second, as you have, but perhaps a more distant second. I've found, that is, that unless the pivot coincides with previous price S/R somewhere, it's not likely to generate much enthusiasm. What's key, as we've discussed, is not the pivot level per se, but what happens there, i.e., how traders behave there. S/D lines? Yes, third, although they are a manifestation of the swing points created by the LRHs/LRLs. As with MAs, etc., if one wonders if the line is going to provide S/R, look to the left. Is the point at which price looks to bump up against the line coincident with a swing point or a congestion zone or a base of some sort? Is there any price activity on that plane that suggests that that point on the line will prompt a bounce? As for the "weekly" pivot, if there is such a thing, these same considerations apply. As for MAs, don't abandon your earlier comments about making it simple and keeping it that way. As for your lines, goforwand, we look for pretty much the same thing, but what your friends may not understand is that it's not the lines nor even the number of lines but what happens at or near one of those lines that attracts attention. Yes, if one draws enough lines, price is bound to hit something. But a given line in and of itself is completely immaterial. What matters, again, is what, if anything, happens there. If nothing happens there, it's foolish and wasteful to take a trade at that point or level. I don't know if you're up for it, Sulong, but I strongly suggest post-mortems. Going over what one should have seen and what one should have done there is extremely valuable, as these same opportunities arise over and over and over again, based as they are on emotional responses to buying and selling behavior. And since you're trying to achieve clarity, that bingo may come a bit faster by analyzing the day's opportunities, taken and lost.
dbphoenix, about your quote, "trend refers not just to whether or not price is rising or falling, but whether the price points that people are willing to pay are rising or falling"... As you've made a differentiation between 'price' and 'price points', I'd welcome a bit more clarification, please.
People tend to look at charts and prices and indicators and whatever lines they choose to draw as being separate from behavior. In fact, I suspect that most people don't even think about trader behavior at all when they look at charts. Therefore, when they see price rising, they think "hmm, the trend is up", without necessarily making the connection between "trend" and "price", much less between "price" and the money that somebody actually forked over to buy whatever it is that is rising. 'Price", therefore, is not some amorphous blob that is "rising". "Price" represents nothing less than what somebody somewhere agreed to pay, and the fact that price is rising means that a series of somebodies are willing to pay ever-higher prices. At what point are those ever-higher prices going to be too much? At what point are those who have been willing to buy not quite so willing? And when do those who bought a long time ago notice this pausing and reflecting and wonder if it's time to move on to greener pastures? This is what S/R is all about, not some line or level but a price paid, along with the number of people who paid that price. Which may have nothing to do with what you asked, but here it is anyway for whoever wants it or finds it useful.
for the 30th(today), i have a pivot on the nq at 1492.5 and this also corresponds to the 28th's close . Looking at the MP for yesterday at : http://www.cme.com/dta/hist/cva.html?var=ND0304040129&var1=NASDAQ-100 (ND)&var2=1 1485 was the price traded the most(which one could see looking at the chart). Price closed above that and so far this morning it is still there. Last reaction low was also around 1492.5 So going into today we have more than one line at a support price. Just looking for confirmation on this .
My pivot # is 1492, I have the LRL at 1490.5 printing at 3:35(east time) S1 at1482. It looks like our lines are in the same zone, and yes I view the 90.5-92 as a double line, which draws my attention to it. "01-30-04 03:27 AM" man, you're an early bird, I don't even get up till 4:00am
Thank you db, I gave it a try last night, and found out that I'll need to do a much better job of organizing my time, and work on my skills of transferring what I see into words. I reread last nights work this morning, and see it don't make much sense, even to me.
I suggested this rather than chat because I know typing is not your strong suit, but chat is always an option. I make it a point to make my notes immediately after I quit for the day, whether that's in the morning or at the close. I don't get up until they're done. If I try to come back later and put something together, I've already forgotten much of what was going through my mind when I took or passed on a trade. The bulk of my notes, of course, are taken during the day. The pad's right there at hand, and I comment on anything unusual or anything that I want to recall. The end-of-trading stuff, then, is mostly a review, maybe a summary which leads to a specific lesson to be learned or a specific reminder of something to do or to avoid. These "lessons" used to pile up like empty bottles, but are now relatively rare. But they continue, nonetheless. In any case, keep your reviews private if you like, but do them by all means. You might also consider whether or not you want to open your journal to others so that they can provide postmortems of their own, or if you'd prefer that they open their own journals. Otherwise, you may wind up with a mess.