4re, ...happy trading.....you deserve a fair shot at this.....u won't get it with me here.........best wishes to you and your brother......porgie
Yes, few people spend the time and effort to really learn how to trade breakouts. The key is by looking at charts at different time frames and determine where the most likely place for a real breakout to occur. My opinion is that you do this before the market opens when you can look at it objectively. It is not hard to do, just takes practice. I have been doing it for years in several different markets and so far have proven it to work here in the emini market as well. My money management system keeps winning trades from turning into losing trades and therefore helps improve the R/R. Since starting this thread I personally have had only one losing day which was made up in the first trade the following day. I also had one day where my numbers never were hit and therefore did not trade. I have been trading this method for several months in the S&P eminis before starting this thread with the same results...Still I do not make claims that I or my method is perfect as it is not but I can claim to be extremely successful. That I believe has been proven on here by more than just myself.
Does anyone have about a month of ES - EOD data that they can send me please or direct me to a free site where I can uplift it. The only info that I have found on the net is in chart form. Many thanks
last comment.........all u have learned in other markets will do u no good in emini trading intraday.......take it to the bank
Hey 4re, see if you can put together a mechanical system which mirrors your use of different timeframes to "synch-up" and offer the trade(s) with the greatest probability. You know you know what you're talking about, well, staying up until 5am last nite, I know you know what you're talking about too ... While programming your exact strategy for determining S/R is difficult, it is possible, as a version of it already exists. http://www.clayburg.com/ It sounds like his Cyclone system (not that I am shilling for him or anyone else here - I don't want you or a moderator to think so) is very similar to a breakout of previous day's S/R, I only mention it to assist you in implementing a mechanical version of where you want to go with your trading. After all, we only have 1 pair of eyes and (in my case) your classic three screen setup, and there are many markets. Best, Jimmy
If trading only one contract, yes. But a breakout strategy with a near-target that trades only one contract will be extremely inefficient. Recalculate your figures using five contracts. The profit:loss result is only one aspect. Among others is the win:lose result. As to the results of the backtest that was done, just racing through n days to find out whether or not something "works" is only the beginning of the process, if that. It is also important for the beginner who seeks to move on from being a beginner to analyze what's in front of him, at the very least asking why the winners are winners and why the losers are losers. This doesn't mean that he should stop his test run until he's finished. But he should while doing it also be making notes of what he notices regarding the behavior of price, the most obvious being whether or not the day is an inside day and how far price has to travel before breaking out of the PDH or PDL. A BO strategy is not likely to be as successful as one wants it to be unless he has a thorough understanding of S/R, and S/R is in no way static. S/R represents those levels at which traders will act as desired. If they don't, then it's not S/R, regardless of what one thinks or wants.
I honestly would not have a clue how to automate this type of trading. Getting into the trade is easy, just look at some chart. The tricky part can be getting out of a trade. Whether you escape with a 1 point gain or captalize on a 4 point straight move. By all means try if you know how. Maybe you can make some good money off of something like that. Just let me know how you did when you do.