Here are my numbers for tomorrow. There are several S/R's to the left on the chart. Some very good ones in fact. I believe several will be taken out in the pre-market which so often happens. That is part of my reasoning in tonights picks. If they do get taken out then mine will most likely get hit also. That being said here they are. Long 1283-1287 Short 1267-1264 Good Trading Tomorrow (no long saying good luck) 4re
Again, thanks for the feedback. I wholeheartedly concur with the educational aspect. I've been trading equities steadily since 2002. I've used a swing trading method buying on pullbacks after breakouts as well as catching the mo train as prices crack new highs. Your method is most like my momentum method. I thought I knew quite a bit, but you guys are at a whole different level. This just gets me motivated. I love to learn and play this remarkable chess game. In the beginning, it was all about making the money. It still is, but to a lesser extent. Instead of it being the primary consideration, it's more about executing a strategy with discipline and taming emotions i.e trading well. Let the money follow like a dog on a leash. I still fight with impatience and tend to jump in early. The result is either dead money for a few days as the correction continues and then goes my way or I get stopped out before it turns to the direction I had counted on, or I just get stopped out and am glad to see the correction go way beyond my stop. I am not bothered by losing an appropriate risk level and knowing the stop loss has preserved my capital. I like the idea letting the market bring you in, no matter the direction and methodically banking a few points, day in and day out. I like focusing on one trading vehicle, instead of searching for new equities after the one I was in has played itself out. Very appealing strategy. I will scour the Alaron site. If I am satisfied with their tools, I'll likely open an account. I see myself studying and developing a strategy I'm comfortable with based off the methods observed in this thread. I will then join you in steady profitability.
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Riaamaan, This is a totally different type of game but the T/A used in equities works here as well. If you fight with impatience and jump in early please don't do it using my method it will be certain death. It isn't good to do at all but discipline is a must using a breakout system. The reason breakouts work is the momentum of a lot of people used to push the price through a S/R level, if the momentum isn't there support or resistance will hold and price will bounce off of it making the S/R even stronger. I tend to give it at least .5 points through the S/R to make sure I don't jump the gun. If you will notice sometimes we will get close to my entry and market reverses this is to be expected. In fact I like to see that happen especially later in the day. It means my support or resistance is getting stronger and I will have no doubts entering my trade at the level I have called. There are several books out there about this method but my favorite and I read it a lot is The Disciplened Trader by Mark Douglas. Read the whole book and then keep going back to chapters 15 and 16 and read them again and again until it clicks with you. I single out these chapters because they deal with the why of price movement. Until you understand the why part of it you just won't get it. I wish you the best. 4re
Wow, was anybody playing that spike up this morning. I don't play those but the reversal at 1282 is a very good thing for my long call. If we do break through it will take a lot of power. Power that we will use to get our 2 points. Good Trading Today 4re
Looking back on the daily charts that spike this morning cleared all the clutter out going back to the 16th of May. This will be very good for today's trade. If we don't hit our entry by 11:30 ET I will not be trading today. After lunch before a holiday always sucks. 4re
What was your reasoning for not taking the break through the 76 area, given the strength of the R there?
Good question and the simple answer is that I believe it is better to stick with my original plan. Veering off the plan especially based on news usually does me dirty. I saw it ahead of time and was pretty sure that this news would spike us up. That being said some people may be coming in here looking at my trade numbers and I think the responsible thing to do is take the same trade I called the night before and assume they are doing the same. That is my reasoning. 4re
You got that right ... Here's a chart showing how I (loosely) define the previous day's Support/Resistance. In reviewing it last night I found that If a Support or Resistance line wasn't hit, it would provide Support or Resistance in later sessions. This confirms for me that the market (like a deck of cards) does have memory and S/R can be used, not so much as an "edge", but to help one develop a tradeable methodology which is logical and congruent with how the market operates. *** Basically, I look at the market as having two sessions, a morning session (9:30am - 11:30am) and an afternoon session (1:30pm - 3:30pm). Now this MAY OR MAYNOT be how the market trades (in fact you will have many market opportunities during the afternoon session), this is just another concept (or "tool") to help me define how I think about the market(s). I see the morning session as being the early determination of where future value will be. If traders (based on all of their high tech super data feeds/newslinks/bloomberg/etc., etc., ad nauseam) think the market is "underpriced", it will be higher, if they think it is "overpriced" it will be lower. Along that same line, I see the afternoon session as being the early determination of where future value will be tomorrow. If traders ("same") think the market remains "underpriced" after moving higher in the early session, it will continue to go higher, if not, it will reverse and go lower. If traders think the market remains "overpriced" after moving lower in the early session, it will continue to go lower, if not, it will reverse and go higher. That last (afternoon) session is what determines tomorrows S/R. Look at 15 minute candlesticks and draw a line below the last lowest close of the afternoon session - there you have Support. Look at 15 minute candlesticks and draw a line at the close of the last highest close of the afternoon session - there you have Resistance. So long as it [the market] is above previous Resistance, I should be looking for opportunities to go Long, if it opens below Resistance and above Support, and breaks through Resistance, I should buy the "breakout". So long as it [the market] is below previous Support, I should be looking for opportunities to go Short, if it opens above Support and below Resistance, and breaks through Support, I should sell the "breakdown". *** For the last four paragraphs I just copied and pasted the previous paragraph, and reversed the logic for Shorts vs. Longs. When looking at the market like this you (the trader) can do the same thing. Best Regards, Jimmy P.S. The area between Support and Resistance. That's "THE CHOP", I stay out of there until S/R has been "hit", and the market can start determining what it wants to do.