Something else to look at is the "reversion to the mean" aspect of it. If, for example, you have two or three or more days of less-than-ADR, the probability of a break through S/R is that much higher (the origin of the NR4, NR7, NR9 business). Again, not a lock, but not a time to be sleeping late or taking days off, either.
Jimmy, You appear to be using multi-day probability. (If you have a method that delivers 75 to 80 percent of the time on any given day, and the method doesn't deliver one day, the following day it has a higher probability - 100+ percent - of delivering.) Is that correct? If you are asking if I call my numbers and the entry never gets hit do I use the same numbers for the next day. Yes, it happened 2 days in a row before the last Fed Meeting and as soon as Bernanke delivered the ES rocketed down about 7 points in 90 seconds. I 5.5 of those points before I could do a market order and get out.
4re - I really appreciate this thread. Very constructive and without the B.S. on a lot of ET threads. I it stays as constructive as it has been so far (based on everyone's contributions, I think it will!) Jimmy - I really appreciated our PM exchange a week ago or so about how our filters to make the TI method work. However, now it sounds like you've made the full transition to breakout trading away from divergence trading (like 4re did some time ago). I'm still clinging to my divergence trades (which have worked decently well today), but I'm getting more and interested in the simiplicity and clarity of breakout trading. Sandy P.S. A subtitle for this thread could be "For TI Drop-outs".
So far we are getting a good group and I know I like that. As far as clinging to your method, that is great. Sometimes it is hard to change from one thing that has worked for you to something that is totally opposite. If it works don't fix it. I like your subtitle. I think so far nobody is really looking at us that much wich is fine as long as we are happy.
This may be the time to point out that one size does not fit all, nor does it fit all the time. Since the bottom several years ago, I've traded nothing but retracements. However, since we've been sitting for six months now going nowhere, trading the trend no longer "works" for me. Nor reversals, for my own reasons. That leaves breakouts and what some people would call "scalping". However, to do this requires size since the opportunities to scale in are so much less attractive in terms of MM. Therefore, it's prudent to have at least two strategies, if not three, according to market conditions.
Hey Sandy ... there's another quote by Lamont_C where he talking about getting tired from taking lots of trades as well, but the market is about to make another move off of support (previous - yesterday's - resistance) and I gotta keep an eye on it. *** Yeah, I like the simplicity and logic of basic Support/Resistance trading vs. Divergence trading, so I'm definitely moving to making that my core methodology. However, it doesn't answer ALL the questions of trading (Money Management, Position Sizing, Small Gaps, Large Gaps, Reversals etc.) so for me it needs a LOT of "fleshing out". But as a core method it "makes sense" to me, so I'm "with it". *** Using the Indices and the Internals (which I mentioned earlier) are also in my "tool box". *** TI taught some good fundamental concepts, using tight stops, being aware of the optimal times to take a trade, the basic market patterns to look for interms of Support/Resistance (as well as Divergence) etc. so I don't really see things as beginning/ending, succeeding/failing/ etc. I see everything in terms of adding to my education and knowledge base. *** I've made the previous statement on another thread that: a) when I began trading, I paid through the nose (with real money) to learn how to trade b) then I moved on to paying money to someone to teach me how to trade c) now I'm at a place where I'm honing my skills, making good trades (the money will come, just make good trades) and learning from other traders (as well as from the market, the best teacher of all) I see it as being a natural evolution ... Best, James
Totally onborad with this answer. I have a reversal method that I use every now and then. I talked about earlier in the thread. It just uses BB's and I wait for the candle to go outside the BB and reverse. It has to close on the inside of the band. Then I will scalp 2 points with it. Works very good on range days and it is simple. We all have a little different method to our madness and that is what makes the markets work.
This is one of those days, though, when it pays to hang around, not only due to the tight range, but also to where the range is occurring. Anybody who can't see where the S/R are here should probably try something else I must confess, though, that I did run errands. If anything does happen, 2pm is a likely window for it.
No, me neither. And it isn't as if traders can't decide what to do. It's as if they're not there. But this is a little early to be taking off for Memorial Day.