What was your signal to enter.....a back-to-back 3rd deviation move in the ES (yesterday up and today down.....first time this has happened in a VERY LONG TIME!)
My pet conspiracy theory is that with the Bush term ending the game will end, so they are creating a blow off top (and associated volume) to sell out into, just as happens with stocks. Sabre rattling re: Iran etc is the tool. With high prices new supply will inevitably become economic to extract and will come on line and cause a surplus for a while at some point going forward. Even now Saudi etc are saying they have oil but no buyers (granted, Saudi surplus could be because of lack of refining capacity for their heavy crude)
I doubt anyone is sweating the $500/contract hike; this is just wrong way bets being covered from $140 and covering ahead of the weekend. When CL gets jammed up like that into the close without any pullbacks, the overnight bid is almost guaranteed since everyone is trapped, and it loves to have explosive rallies at 2am before the NY open. There will be some good sales but they're probably north of 145.
Question for Ivanovich NB I'm mainly Forex as well [and quite bearish on the equity markets] but I couldn't resist going long at close either. Question is where have you put your stop?? Cheers
There's a lot of ifs, and when, where and with who. I covered all my shorts in financial couple days ago, then shorted coal, iron/steel and potash producers starting yesterday and added more today. Seems like speculators are running dry in these markets. The money will move around between what people are speculating with, and the fear of the unknown will continue to be a driving factor. Financial stocks don't look TERRIBLE at these prices, but there is so much scared money out there that no one wants to take losses let alone borrow, lend capital and therefore is impossible for debt to expand further. There must be financial confidence in the market before anything can happen. Perception and expectations are very important in the market
The oil slow drift down today reversed as the Euro got legs again and pushed the 1.5800's....I am sure recently entered short CL positions were faint hearted as the close drew near (knowing the possible affects of the ECB decision in the AH on the dollar and oil).
Until someone lights a bottle rocket under Bernanke's ass to push him to raise the dollar, this market is headed closer to the depths of Lucifers kingdom Id like to know which segment of the market could possibly help pull it up from what is now officially considered bear territory. financials- show they still choking on their own vomit transports- are hurting from climbing energy prices biotech- out to lunch service industry- lay offs oil...lol........just wait till Israel attacks Iran.. $144/barrel?.... you aint seen nothin yet!!
Sold additional QM tonight at 145.50 and 145.75 while up watching the EU session and trading the DAX a bit....standing by for all the ECB decision fun. So far U.S. futures are pretty flat as everyone waits for news/numbers this morning.
Not a margin trade, cash only. Therefore, I have no stop. I'm going to do a long term hold. Kinda like a stock_trad3r play, except I just did it with some cash that was sitting in the bank earning crap interest.
All my QM positions from yesterday have been covered with profits.....only holding $145.50 and $145.75 entries at this time looking for a break below $140 in the next few trading days.