Cramer and Kudlow turning negative are huge buying signs, agree, but looking at the market IMHO real recovery rally will come after all those currently on the sidelines waiting to pile back in have done so and lost. Right now there is just too much activity and too many people eager to buy the dips. I don't doubt that we will see a short term bounce. Who knows, it may prove to be the recovery, but I think too early for that. Recovery comes when you are at the stage where anyone talking about a recovery is regarded as an idiot and the rally is initially dismissed as "technical", "shorts covering" etc etc, after all, there is no fundamental basis for it is there? . Right now much of the sentiment is too much along the lines of waiting for a buying opportunity. We are not looking at an ordinary cyclical "recession" here we are looking at someyhing akin to the Asian crisis where markets are broken and the main drivers that drove the economy previously are gone. We are looking at broken credit markets. The transmission mechanism is broken.
How can we recover? We're not even in recession yet? The whole impetus to recovery are bargain basement input prices - wages, commodities and energy (and rates). Producers begin accumulating and investing at rock-bottom prices. None of those have dropped yet. Wages are just starting to rise from inflation! A bit behind the curve to call recovery.....Recovery of what?
If the dollar doesn't firm or gets even weaker, inflation stays high or runs higher and unemployment numbers disappointing, people will step over each other to rush for the exits and we WILL have a massive crash. Oil Bulls are killing the equity markets and financial markets by stoking massive inflation in everything from petrol to transport costs to higher material costs (and much, much more). Killing them. Oil Bulls must be dealt with harshly.
C'mon, you guys act like we move straight down. Read the daily just like you would the intra day chart. While my opinion is still the downside, just like it has been for over 7 months now, there will be up days. Tomorrow should be one of them. Go along with it, make money and short the rallies until a trend change happens. LOL. There is no doubt in my mind, we will get to 1252 but it won't be for a few more days.
I agree tomorrow should be an up day. But looking at our economy I would be prepared to short on a breakout from those lows.
The last counter-trend "bounce" was 1304 - 1335 and was roughly 31.2 handles in the SPX. Add 31.2 to yesterday's low at 1260.68 for a projected target of: 1291.88 Actual High: 1292.17
Correct, 31 point move was also a 3rd deviation move in the ES (only happens 2 to 4 times a year)....I used this as a reason to sell the 1292.50's in the overnight.
1/2 out at 1282.50 with 1272.50 and 1262.50 as my last profit targets. Market will trade down into a new lower trading range imo....1250's will be tested soon.