According to "Mr. Dodge" there is no way that the market could have rallied out of the mid-March 2003 low because the Economy was still floundering around 1.4% GDP growth in Q-1 and Q-2 of that year . . . down dramatically from the 4.0% of Q-4 of 2002. I mean, how could the market possibly RALLY when the unemployment rate reached 6.4% in June of 2003? How could the S&P rally 25% off the March low in Q-1 when the Economy had yet to turn? Could it be that the market was already "discounting" a rapidly expanding second half of 2003, which saw 3.3% and 8.2% in Q-3 and Q-4? Naaaaaaaaaaa. Not a chance! https://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2004-2015/media/CHAP2-04.pdf
You forgot this guy too. He threw in the towel on U.S. equities last Thursday. Said he could no longer be bullish on stocks, because of the dollar.
Here is the trading "thing" about the 2002-2003 chart. Notice how the indexes made a 33% gain in very short time (less then 12 months). Then it took another 3-4 years to make it another 30-40%. The most money is made right at the bottom. I say probably to look at stocks now that havent worked like NYX. Stocks that have worked may not work anymore as money starts flowing from one to the next. This isnt the 80s where the same stocks work for 20 years.
If the dollar firms, inflation eases and numbers aren't horrific, people will step over each other to pile back in. We could have a monster rally in the offing.
Money pumps work 1 time. Then inflation kicks-in and wage-price spiral starts. The 2003 double bottom needs some fundamental context. Rates were at new lows, housing picking up steam, growing economy, consumer credit still cheap and plentiful, energy and commodities much lower. Now flip that picture upside down. Rates still low, housing, economy and consumer credit dropping like a stone. Energy and commodities sky high. Fundamentally, theres nothing to save this economy, except real price deflation. That happens after the market crashes and we go into official recession. 2 cents.
I don't agree the bottom is in but I do believe that tomorrow will move higher. Not saying tomorrow but in the next few days, I say we touch the 20day ema. then have a pullback.