you surely knew when to launch the poll. the darn animal is stuck ~1220. could somebody put it out its misery?
in the last 3 weeks: SPY +15%, QQQ +15%, XLE +27% what goes up must come down! Sir Newton can't be wrong. as long as we are in a bear market, which i believe we are still in. the smart money is bidding up VIX futures even as SPX is making new multi-month highs.
Hum, NYSE short interest at almost 3 year highs and EUR/USD shorts at multi-months highs=explosive mixture for S&P at 1450 at year´s end...
Interesting! http://www.newsmax.com/StreetTalk/Hulbert-Bull-Market-stocks/2011/10/20/id/415138 Stock Pundit Hulbert Sees Bull Market Dead Ahead Thursday, 20 Oct 2011 08:15 AM By Greg Brown A market sentiment indicator developed in the 1970s that has a long record of predicting bull markets is at it again â pointing to much higher stock prices to come, says stock market pundit and publisher Mark Hulbert. Called the High Low Logic Index, it follows new 52-week lows. It was developed by econometrician Norman Fosback. A version of the index is published these days by Ned Davis Research. The index follows how many new lows are put in by individual stocks, Hulbert explains. When the index reads lower than 2.5 percent, the S&P 500 has gone on to put on 17.9 percent. (When too high, the market has fallen by double digits.) Right now, Hulbert writes in his MarketWatch column, the index is at 1.7 percent, indicating a strongly bullish trend. âIn fact, there have been only four other occasions over the last 25 years in which the Ned Davis Research version of the High Low Logic Index has moved from bearish territory above 4.05 percent to as low as it is today, and all four came close to a major market bottom: Late 1987, late 1990, early 2003, and late 2008,â Hulbert notes. Hedge fund figure Leon Cooperman, too, is out pounding the podiums for stocks. He recently told an audience in New York he âwouldnât be caught dead owning a U.S. government bondâ and that stocks were cheap right now, according to a Bloomberg report. "Stocks are cheap relative to history, relative to inflation, relative to interest rates," said Cooperman, a former Goldman Sachs CEO and founder of Omega Advisers. "The recent facts suggest the economy is accelerating moderately.
In nominal terms S&P can be 1500... Fed printing money, historically low interest rates = nominal growth for the vast majority of assets. The stock market (with fiat money) rises with price level changes/inflation (see 1920s German stock market). CPI is ~+2.5% but all other commodities, particularly food is up way more. In real terms no way does the S&P stay above 1200. Is anyone not concerned that the USD and the stock market has an inverse relationship? Seriously the S&P can be up 5% for the year but if the USD is down 5% against other currencies then the investor doesn't gain anything in real terms. Lol to people who claim that the USD goes inverse because American exporters will be able to sell more with a cheaper USD... in real-terms there's no gain. Under a fiat system the stock market is always bullish when measured for the long-term. That said I'm surprised we haven't rallied more considering the Fed's attempts... 1100 to 1200 area is like a big magnet.
I'm sorry, i'm a modest guy-- but I have to gloat on this call. The s&p futures were down -6 when I posted this, and it has been quite an idea and trade for me so far!