how did you make money on the travelers, if you don't mind me asking. i know somebody that got crushed on it. there was supposed to be a sell imbalance for TAP.A and a buy imbalance for TAP.B, but there were no imbalances, and TAP.B slumped into the close. there was no gap at all. from firstcall: "Banc of America Securities program trading estimates that S&P 500 Index funds will need to sell approximately 20.9 million shares of TAP.A and purchase approximately 51.4 million TAP.B following the distribution. These figures are based on a S&P 500 weighting for Travelers shares that include the market capitalization of both the A and B shares (approximately $16.9 billion). Despite the distribution index funds will receive from their Citigroup holdings, due to the weighting based on both classes of TAP shares, they will have to buy incremental B shares and sell their A shares (which are not in the S&P 500). As a result of this and the 7 to 1 voting writes, the B shares are currently trading at a 9.7% premium to the A shares."
How can you possibly say it was the right trade??? You even got a look and saw that there wasn't much of an imbalance left. Once I saw RJR sell off 76cents on well over a million shares in the last 20 minutes, I did not need a look to tell me not to try this trade. it just didn't add up and i sat this one out. I didn't think it would gap down that much, but there was much more risk involved in this trade than you are realizing.
Just curious why you included TAP.A. Wasn't the inclusion only for TAP.B? Yes, the inclusion was TAP.B WI. I was trading both that day, sorry bout the confusion.
This a repeat of the ATH add a month or so ago, which was also discussed here. It printed down a dollar on the moc. I think the play on these things is different now, at least for the near term. So many people were awe-struck at the 'free money' in GS, RD and UPS that there are too many players now, thus no imbalance. I was long it during the day, but wasn't going do the moc order.
for rjr there was 5 million to be bought and it had traded well over that when the first imbalance came out. The 1st was 160k to buy. That immediately soured me on the long and I got short immediately. 2nd indication: 700 000 to buy. This is still not enough in my mind, however i did cover my short to take a profit. 5 mil to 150k to 700k? not a good risk reward play and better to sit on the sidelines.
how did you make money on the travelers, if you don't mind me asking. i know somebody that got crushed on it. there was supposed to be a sell imbalance for TAP.A and a buy imbalance for TAP.B, but there were no imbalances, and TAP.B slumped into the close. there was no gap at all. I think I bought the b kind at .49 and sold the close which I think was .76? You are correct though, it was not gappy. As I recall, it traded around .50 and went up to the whole # and closed around .75. I got a good print under .50. Sold MOC and sold both kinds short MOC.
"How can you possibly say it was the right trade??? You even got a look and saw that there wasn't much of an imbalance left. " So? I get looks every day when there is not much of an imbalance and buyers or sellers show up. I knew there were 7mill to buy from about 10:00, at 3:30 maybe 6 mill had traded, I got long based on that information and like I said I would do it again. If more supply shows up than demand I will be wrong every time. If the $2 guy tells me there is LEH with 3mill for sale, it changes my decision. "Once I saw RJR sell off 76cents on well over a million shares in the last 20 minutes, I did not need a look to tell me not to try this trade. " On your first point, aaahh, yes, didn't feel good. On your second, it's a little too late at that point... "it just didn't add up and i sat this one out." Good move. "I didn't think it would gap down that much, but there was much more risk involved in this trade than you are realizing. " I am not saying there was not a lot of risk in the trade, there is definitely a lot of risk in every trade.