Hello community, I am curious to know if some of you use probability density functions to analyze the market sentiment. An example of those is attached to this post. Basically, the blue line is the risk-neutral probability distribution for ES futures recovered from options prices expiring on 19 december, and the pink line is the distribution created for the same underlying just with the atm volatility. I think this information might be quite valuable, on the particular jpeg attached we see that todays options prices imply that there is a slightly higher probability for ES to trade at higher levels until 19 december than the normal distribution would suggest. If someone is interested in this kind of analysis, I could post the screenshots in this thread from time to time (for the beginning ES only). Cheers.