the question is whether the formation seen on the chart is an A B of an ABC correction, or, a Reversal formation if an abc, c could drop as low as 800, the abc could be regarded as a W 4, and a W 5 portending higher highs begins in 2010 if however it's a Reversal formation ( the SP formation is different to the DJ formation - see labelling on chart at site ) it signifies 2000 as the W 5 top 'the sky is falling the sky is falling' - 'civilisation as we know it has ended' and anywhere between 800 and 0 is good into 2011 http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=6088
Price target doesn't matter. What matters is whether or not the move, up or down, is sustainable. As a reminder, it is (almost) illegal for major markets worldwide to go down. If there is a sell-off, it has wind in the face. If there is a rally it has wind to it's back. 30-50 ES point moves were happening BEFORE.
The only problem with that argument is there's no suckers left. The public is gone and gone for good.
Not only are the "Public" finished with the US stock Market for a while. Hedge Funds will have to show their short positions this week. It will be interesting to see how many are short the Futures, or major baskets of those in the SP500. could be a good time to fade the hedge Funds. Go long their positions. Dow will be at 9000, SP 500 will break 911 lows. However, I thinking a rally into the election and then, By By markets for the next 5 years or so. We have just started the decline, the fall has yet to come. Obama looks like he will pull ahead due to the fact that the public is to damn dumb to understand what has happen and will blame the Republicans for the Bail out and bad economy.
I have shared Prechter's lone voice opinion on a possible deflation. However, he also mentioned that he expects the DOW to move sideways, much as it did from 1962 - 1982. This is really a more likely senario.
We will see another inflation bubble, the 1 trillion plus bailout will ensure that. I'm looking for a triple top, third one in 2012 area, I think that will be the final bursting of the Dollar bubble.