Discussion in 'Trading' started by a529612, Apr 13, 2007.
The old high on the S&P 500 is only about 7-8 points above the current level. Thoughts?
The S&P will make new highs within a month
The market needs to pullback sharply for a few days, before new highs are reached.
Why? Because I'm short as hell and getting killed right now!
Huge rally next week to suck all the pikers in while the smart money is unloading and getting short. Then down we go below the March lows. Been saying this for 2 weeks now and right so far.
As bearish as I am I am predicting new highs next week. There is a bunch of earnings next week, if these are pretty much in line and above expectations another run at 12750+ is possible. How high we go after that is anyones guess. To think the markets are going to continue to run without another significant pullback is foolish. ?New highs may come but I would be very careful trading at these levels. Margin Debt is at new highs while nearly every index is trading at or near new highs. I think Feb 27th was just a sample of what is to come.
The other thing that is confusing is how high some of these markets have gone without anyone really considering how overbought some of these markets are. Its going to be after the 10% or even 30% correction that they mention how overbought the markets were and that a much needed sell off was due.
Smart money who orchestrated this rally has been unloading in to short covering and to pikers late to the party who have been sucked in. Now time to take it down.
I am loaded with a full position of unhedged EEM June 120 puts.
Waiting for 1,460 on the spooz to go short.
I think there's a chance of seeing it by Monday of next week.
I just can't say it enough, don't short the US markets the dollar weakness is a huge headwind for US shorts and crushing the liquidity in EM. The RR is far greater in EM. Use US markets to hedge an EM short. In the unlikely event that US markets correct 10% EM will correct 30-40%.
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