Discussion in 'Trading' started by ordinary_trader, Aug 11, 2011.
FWIW - Entire move up from 2009 lows is an abc up.
Current move projects to below 666 March 2009 low
Monthly S&P Chart
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3267189" border="0" alt=""><br />
and the D?
Don't get carried away by the rallies on days like today - Odds are they are just a shorting opportunity for now.
Daily chart is filling out a bear flag. Very high odds that SP is going to trade well below that 1101 low. 1000 area has good odds before a meaningful bounce
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3268672" border="0" alt=""><br /
Equity counter trend rally breaking down in aftermarket.
Will it be rescued later today ? Futs last price 1159.
The uptrend since March 2009 was a bear market rally contained within a much larger downtrend that started in 2000 â According to my indicators the March 2009 lows will not hold.
Bear/Bull flags are the best price patterns and some of the highest odds to trade. If you only trade bull and bear flags you can do very well.
A great filter for trading flags is momentum. so momentum move followed by a bull or bear flag has even better odds. Right now on the daily chart there is a strong momentum move down followed by the first set of bear flags forming. this is normally a very high odds play for a break to new lows.
For an example as what to expect from the current bear flag on the daily chart, just look at the 120 min chart and see how the last few bear flags played out.
On the 120 min chart (shown below) you had a momentum breakdown from the prior trading range and got 3 pushes down before a better consolidation/bounce that is happening now.
If you see the daily chart (see my previous post), it had a big break down and is forming the first bear flag. Good odds for 2 more pushes lower after these bear flags before getting a better retrace up
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3268694" border="0" alt=""><br />
Is it possible that what you see is simply the response to the nutso EURUSD? And that it has fundamentally nothing to do with the health of our market?
Speaking of health, freight volumes are steady and the amount that trucking companies charge to ship has been on the rise all year at a pretty strong pace. That suggests demand for shipping has gone up relative to the supply. www.truckloadrate.com
Is it possible that "Ordinary_Trader" and "Grand_Stuper_Cycle"
are off their rocker trading stories in an insane asylum ?
More certainly its possible, probably far more likely then the March 2009 lows being broken in our lifetimes.
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