I don't see the SPX heading into "new" highs soon. I do what the market tells me, and right now it's telling me it won't happen anytime soon. I must tell you, the market has BS'd me many times, and that's what stops are for . We broke below a key MA (the 50SMA) on August 1, and despite higher volume days we failed to close well above the MA with any strong conviction ever since. res 1010-999 sup1 949 sup2 918 Even with strong rallies into and through resistance, I believe the price action will be challenged by major selling pressure with lower highs formed since mid June. Take a look at the weekly...this SPX will have to fight some major selling pressure (overhead resistance). At best I believe we will test resistance and then consolidate (correct through time) along the 949 support. Will we break to new highs? Maybe, but not I don't see it in the immediate future, there's alot of pissed off people (thanking God for breakeven and they're going to whack bids) holding long overhead, and the SPX will have to blast through them. I'll spend the night with some shorts, and if I spend them with longs, I'll be holding my wallet TIGHTER. See attached. I may be wrong...that's what stops are for.
Look at the MA as a trail from a plane: 1) Take off 2) Cruise at altitude 3) Descent 4) Landing Looks like we're at cruising altitude. Seems like we'll stay there (for "X" period of time), or land. You can always ascend to higher altitudes , but hitting higher altitudes will be tough with overhead "turbulence" (resistance) Trust your instruments, and trust your stops, only after you trust your analysis of the instruments
so, I ain't gonna fight it... EVERYONE (almost), including me 'expects' (is looking for) Aug-Sept (& early October) to be biased to the downside... as this is the historical trend/pattern... but this year reminds me of a scene (line) from one of my favorite movies... "Patton"! GCS is commenting on the Germans mounting a winter attack; how they have never done any such thing for centuries... and then, with his typical mega-confidence proclaims: "so, I think THAT IS EXACTLY what they are going to do"!! The market always tend to surprise the many. SO, is a late summer/early "Fall" attack possible this year... ? Personally I'm gonna watch and wait for any great opportunities...... since I can't add any longs at this juncture given my "bias" despite my aforesaid comments. Will stay in mostly cash until the "germans" show their hand! ICe p.s. no offense to any "German" ET brothers...
I'm soo lucky, so lucky that if there were a blackout, which is a complete hypothetical, that I would never be caught in a bad situation, like being stuck in an elevator or subway. I'm blessed!
LOL, I was thinking of the end result of your day when you posted the previous bit about luck. Yes you are lucky, blessed, fortunate. But praise for the New Yorkers. You guys really pulled together it seems.