S&P looks good to a new high

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Romeo, Aug 15, 2003.

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  1. Pabst

    Pabst

    Just postin' to keep the poll up top for a while.
     
    #21     Aug 17, 2003
  2. Romeo

    Romeo

    Which way did you vote Pabst?

    Inandlong, which way did you vote as well? I know both you guys were mildly bearish, like myself, so I'm interested to know if i'm alone on this one.
     
    #22     Aug 17, 2003
  3. Yeah, so far so good.

    Looking up more than down, at this point.
     
    #23     Aug 17, 2003
  4. Pabst

    Pabst

    Bringin' it back up.
     
    #24     Aug 17, 2003
  5. Well, I don't know about a new high....but it will be down for the week...on next Friday's close (08/22/03)

    Michael B.
     
    #25     Aug 17, 2003
  6. Romeo I'm sure you mean near to intermediate term. I am still bearish. But I can see how a flip of the coin is just as good right now. I am bearish, but man this is one of the toughest ones I have seen in a long time. At least for me it is.
     
    #26     Aug 17, 2003
  7. Pabst

    Pabst

    Agree inandlong. Tough call though I'm slightly bullish. IMO we could trade in a narrow 5% band for several more weeks.
     
    #27     Aug 17, 2003
  8. Romeo

    Romeo

    Yes, very near term. Just a mild new high, enough to wash out some stops etc. I still see 1025 or so. I am still looking for a decline.

    The contrary nature of the above poll is there, and it seems as though people migrate towards the threads they agree with in principle, and vote that way as well.
     
    #28     Aug 17, 2003
  9. IMHO, this market is very similar to the market we had last December. The volume, structure, lack of momentum, etc are very similar to what we saw in the middle to end of December, just prior to the false break higher in early-mid January.

    Case in point, two weeks ago the SPX broke lower below the 50D MA, the VIX spiked to 25 and then over the next 5-7 sessions, the market traded straight up on the lowest volume since last December. It tells me there is not enough big money flows to push the markets beyond the breakout levels and that the "anti" players are just trapping breaks up and down.

    The 300lb gorilla, however, is how this bond/equity relationship plays out going forward. RIght now, it appears that the collapse in bonds is going to have a delayed effect. But as quite a few people have pointed out, the bond market collapsed in 1987 on a similar timeline. Regardless of the macro implications of the bond/stock relationship, I think this clearly demonstrates how illiquid these markets become once they break major S/R. It seems the one way flows do not get absorbed as easily these days and that everyone piles on now more than ever.
     
    #29     Aug 17, 2003
  10. On the daily chart, the SPX looks pretty bullish...forming a nice bull flag that rests on 08/2002's support.

    However, I don't get why you guys would turn to perma-bull mode in the short term until the SPX at least breaks out of its daily bull-flag.
     
    #30     Aug 18, 2003
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