s&p just made intermediate term top @ 1431.8

Discussion in 'Trading' started by thorn, Dec 22, 2006.

did the s&p make an intermediate term top @ 1431.8?

  1. Yes, it will last thru 3/31/07

    9 vote(s)
    15.8%
  2. No, it will be topped in the 1st qtr of 2007

    32 vote(s)
    56.1%
  3. i don't know / i don't care / go away thorn

    16 vote(s)
    28.1%
  1. thorn

    thorn

    Close doesn't count.
     
    #81     Jan 15, 2007
  2. they did ramp up the futures this morning... easily done by these guys.
     
    #82     Jan 15, 2007

  3. every holiday session they do this...


    EVERY single one!!


    I love free money $$$
     
    #83     Jan 15, 2007
  4. thorn

    thorn

    you do realize your time is about to expire for saying this?
     
    #84     Jan 15, 2007


  5. I hope so bro.... I really do. The market can't be this friggin easy....


    I'm getting tired of hearing myself say this over and over...LOL

    but I doubt "they" ever let the market trend down again in my lifetime...
     
    #85     Jan 15, 2007
  6. R0R!!! :D :D :D
     
    #86     Jan 15, 2007
  7. thorn

    thorn

    By the end of January, I guarantee the s&p will be done thru 7/07.

    You will be unable to say 100% up...for a long time my friend.
     
    #87     Jan 15, 2007
  8. Thorn,

    Why dont you post your exact reasons?

    Im bearish on the market because there are classical signs such as:

    - bullish percent indicators indicating long positions are high risk

    - low average put/call ratio

    - seasonality (market gets a nice pop in January, then Feb-Mar-April will struggle and then sell in May)

    - Charts indicate some fatigue in the overall market

    - Current bullishness based upon hype over a few factors not related to actual earnings (i.e. unreleased/untested Apple Iphone which there is current litigation over).

    - Bull run long in the tooth

    The factors that will make or break the correction will be the following:

    - price of oil
    - Rates on the ten year (key factor-rates are steadily rising)
    - earnings season
    - Fed meeting coming up in January
    - Geo-political concerns like Iran-Iraq
    - Reports that will produce a general read on the economy
    - Inflation

    If the correction is to come, then it will be in the next few weeks when all these factors play out.



     
    #88     Jan 15, 2007
  9. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    I hate to break it to you, but all those factors were in play last August, Sept, Oct, Nov, Dec, etc....

    But it's different this time......LOL
     
    #89     Jan 15, 2007
  10. thorn

    thorn

    You know i've long given up on being specific on ET b/c of the maggots. You can thank bozente, apex capital etc for my silence. But in honor of MLK day, i'll give you this:

    you missed many of the reasons, but this is my rationale in this order:

    1) excessively high bullish sentiment
    2) rising bond yields
    3) the year before an election

    these 3 reasons are more than enough to put the s&p on track for a negative year.
     
    #90     Jan 15, 2007