I don't follow your line of thought. You seem to imply that the lower the probability of a prediction to be correct, the greater that prediction is. That's not very intuitive. I mean, suppose I make a prediction that tomorrow Christ will come down to Earth and the market will plunge. I'll also attach the disclaimer that the probability of such an event is 0.000000001%. By your own measure of "prediction greatness", that would make it a great prediction, would it not? But who in their right mind would bet their money on this prediction? Perhaps what you are referring to is this. Suppose you figure out that the market has a 5% chance to go down by 300 points, and 95% chance to go up by 10 points. Then it does make sense to take a short position, although your expected payoff is still pretty low: Expected market move = 0.05 * (-300) + 0.95 * 10 = -5.5 points
Maybe this helps: Even though there is a low prob of my predictions being correct, some of them on ET have been correct. and I only make a prediction w the expectation of a success.
If it doesn't break 1431.8 during regular hours (I think it will), they'll move the ES up after hours and tomorrow, it will open above the said resistance. Just my take.
Interesting. I'm not so sure about it breaking during regular hours. And with a 3 day weekend, its quite unkonwn as to what will happen over it. And then, it's earnings season in full, so the volatility will be up next week. Oh, and I have hung around as per your request since you did win the contest and the winner gets to dictate whether i stay or go
oops, i meant next week not tomorrow. I got too excited about the next trading day. Either way, glad you stayed!
Got very close, but didn't get there. The Futures caught a nice little "squeeze" into the close though. Have a nice weekend everybody!