Like i said, with the futures where they were yesterday, the chances of this call being proven correct were maybe 1%. Now its alittle higher.
Well, with this volatility we might see 1431 tomorrow ! Who knows, except Thorn, of course, who knows it all.
Thorn, relax... If anyone had taken that short they would've taken 2:1 risk:reward. That's all I am stating. I agree that it's perhaps a 1-2% probability [based upon a 1231 no touch struck at 1432], so it's a bold statement. What happens if you're wrong?
"if" i'm wrong, its more like "when". The chances of this call being correct are small. Its a bold call, and so far its held up, that's all.
If i knew it all, i would have made more than +22% last year. And i wouldn't have suffered through a rare losing quarter (4th quarter). That makes 2 quarters in the last 44 where i lost.
FWIW, I sold 50 ES last night at 1437.50... horrible trade as I cut it off at 1432.00. I don't think 31 will hold on cash, but I've got a way you do 300% on that call if you're correct. Talk to you bank and get permissioned to trade index exotics: March SPX 1445 no touch, $310,000 debit, $1,000,000 payout if not touched. You're nuts to trade vanilla product.
That is pretty good. Do not take my comments too seriously. I respect all kinds of trading systems, strategies, etc.. I think your goal here is more for entertainment purpose than anything else. And entertaining it is. We're cool, as would say my daughters !
You may be right about that. But obviously i take my trading very seriously as well. I akin my attitude here to the villains i see in the WWE. They are looking to get a rise from the crowd, and i supposei am as well. How'm i doin?
Why do we have to make this like the WWE? Why cant we just try to further our goals of making money? I put up a thread called "Strategy Weds" and one of the responses was something like "kings do not make predictions". Then I put another thread up about a possible swing trade in Ethanol stocks. Although the thread was serious and I did receive some good responses, there were a few who insisted on a political discussion of the topic which went far beyond my discussion of possible entry points in the swing. Sometimes the maturity on here is awful and not what I would imagine from "elitetraders". In fact, sometimes I believe its a few bored high school kids out in the midwest on here looking to get a good laugh. There are many notable guys on here who manage hedge funds and hold other key positions. If it is not too much to ask, I wish I could discuss strategy on here without the midwest high school kid routine getting in the way. In fact, I didnt realize Dr. Brett was on here and thats one guy that I have many questions and would love to see him post. However, I guess there will be some who will keep a man of this caliber from responding. I do give props to Don Bright who manages to cut through the high schoolers and manages to deliver mature and well thought out responses.
Why did you call a top at 1431 4 days after the fact when the S&P was trading at 1411 when a 1 lot trader called it in realtime on the day it happened ? We are still 5 points above 1411 so what are you bragging about ? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=82899