this is not the top yet, just another pullback before the parabolic top that smashes all the short stops above current prices. Too much bullishness out here. Need everyone to turn bullish before the top is hammered in: http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/
This is the top. The ten year yield broke resistance at the 50 week moving average. There is nothing on the chart until 5.25%. This time around, however, there is some evidence that demonstrates the market will fly through 5.25 handily and reach above 6. At 6, the country falls into recession. Since the market is program traded, when the ten year variable reaches over 5 then there will be a flight to quality and multiple compression. Right now we are feeling the initial effects of the changes being made. The put/call ratio just went through the roof over 50% as the programs buy the puts for insurance. The VIX rose over 14% and broke through resistance as well. The programs are flashing warning signs at you now. When it gets over 5, then you will see the programs reset the Russell 3000 back to slightly below the 50 week moving average which will take approximately 30-60 days. There are two events that will stop the ten years nasty path and prevent a recession. Both of these events will flood the market with liquidity. Either the Fed must cut rates at the next meeting by 50 to 100 basis points or oil must rise to 65 dollars per barrel. The oil producing nations are flooding the market with US Treasuries that they have been amassing over the last 3 years. The only event that might stop them from doing this is to reset oil north of 65. Either of these two events are highly unlikely to occur therefore my call is for the Russell 3000 to reset to the 50 week moving average. The economy is in poor shape at the current time. The evidence is in the earnings conference reports that I have been speed reading all day long. The mutual funds are still in equities at this point in time and will begin their flight to quality in about two weeks. When this takes place, there will be a massive dump. There is no way to prevent recession at the current time without an infusion of liquidity either from the Fed or the oil producing nations. Dr. Michael Roberts www.marketbarometer.blogspot.com
thorn, I used to enjoy your posts too until you became arrogant. I can't respect anyone that thinks they are brighter, smarter or more important than the market and you now fall into all of those slots. I am truly sorry to see you digress.
Look for a 31-32 point rally in the SPX off of yesterday's lows at 1414.05 over the next 3 days that targets the 1445 area that finishes off this "B" wave retracement before heading back down.
"Look for a 31-32 point rally in the SPX off of yesterday's lows at 1414.05 over the next 3 days that targets the 1445 area that finishes off this "B" wave retracement before heading back down." I pretty much agree with most here that the next leg down has begun. I gave up on elliot some time ago, however, that's a nice interpretation. One thing I'm wondering: is it possible for the abc count on the last corrective wave to have already reached B? That first little spike near the red average line could already contain abc. Although it seems tight, the interpretation is similar to the cab count you have right under the larger B after the beginning of July. Hard to see this last squeeze punching up higher into the alternate (your) AB region considering the magnitude of the prior selloff (although I wouldn't absolutely doubt it considering PPT like squeezes and short interest). The other thing that most people seem to be missing on the targets here (IMHO) is the potential diagonal support line coming up from the 03 and jul 06 bottoms. This puts the C target min more in the range of ~1350-1385, depending on how long the down leg takes to unfold. Not sure how that violates fib target, but I also see different interpretations of the fib bottom here.
I disagree, we will rally to new highs in the next month or two before the next big leg down. Shorts will give up ( nas is sporting record short interest right now, hard to go down), smart money will exit, retail longs will be suckered in and then woosh.