There's simply not going to be any QE while oil is back over 90 (at 91) and the market is pushing year highs. Just give up the thought. Now, whether or not the Fed is working some other QE (besides ongoing Twist) outside the scheme of it's charter, that's a whole different thought.
Its not what you or I think its what Mr Market thinks. Today we have big miss on jobless claims, philly fed, and housing data. Yet markets are green across the board. They are saying these numbers are good for QE3 hopes. Unless you have a better explanation on why the market wont sell off on these numbers. Its not like we're oversold on a short term basis.
Oh, I get that as a rationale and maybe it does put QE3 on the table. And maybe when QE3 is actually announced, it will sell off, in accordance with that other saying "buy the rumor, sell the news".
Time will tell, but as I've been saying they never have to announce it... just keep it on the table so the market can keep going up indefinately, or if the economic data improves the market will go up on that... no lose situation. I dunno how many pts this "QE3 on the table" has added to the market so far but its massive nothing can stop this market... miss on philly fed, home sales, jobless claims just make the market stronger!
Elections, QE3, no other havens for money. Domestic stocks are the best of the worst and the rally hats are on until they're not. Post options expiration we will likely come down but we're range bound for now with a ceiling of 1400-1450. Last year when we were bottoming my back of the napkin figures were 1450. My buddy said no way and yet magically here we go. Everyone is looking to sell at 1390 to 1400 which is why we could break that barrier and jet higher before moving lower. Having said that we could pull a one week rout and be MUCH LOWER so it's not like the market is immune from a nasty sell-off it's just that it is more likely post-elections. All it takes is an economic, geopolitical, or meteorologic event to trigger an abrupt change. People have been conditioned now to have a finger on the trigger to sell in a moment's notice as the volatility in recent past won't be forgotten for a generation. One has to wonder why the straits are full of the Navy's heavy artillery. I suppose a massive oil spike would throw some water onto the incumbent's chances of victory and if conflict were to escalate in the Gulf then $150 oil is a given.
Agreed, bizarre. My theory is that a lot of people were sitting in cash, expecting earnings to be awful, and now that they are around expectations, people are buying in.