From what I read, symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern. Since price came in from above, it should exit from below. The low volume of the past two days and indecisiveness seems to support this (doji, then close at top then close at bottom). However, are these triangle patterns reliable just after a market bottom?
From the panic, the vix, the libor, etc. it's unlikely we could get another downward move with such force. The nasdaq already tried, it broke the low but came right back up. I think the S&P & Dow might need to do the same. since we're in unchartered territory no one knows. I'm just interested in the claims that we're in a triangle and therefore going lower. Most triangles take 1-3 months, we've been in it for a week and a half. Most triangles are continuation patterns. I don't think many expect this to continue down very far with a decent bear rally.
Well, the vix traded above 80 and it's still very high today although it retraced below 60. Apart from the dead cat bounce off the lows mainly due to the concerted political efforts by the G7 finance ministers, we didn't really go that far did we? I want to see a bounce off the lows entirely done by the market with its own power, not due to rate cuts or political efforts. When I see that, I may start thinking of a temporary bottom in place. As far as the triangle formation, it'll likely break to the downside.