Rate hikes will eventually get the fixed rate market to be competitive with valuation of equities. This diverts money from the equity market. Previous rate hikes and threats have not brought fixed money to this level yet.
History repeats itself sometimes, but it doesn't other times... There are no two identical moments in time.
There looks to be too much bearish sentiment right now. It's hard to see the market going lower in the next week with this amount of bearishness.
============= Actualy dont see much relationship between NasdaQQQ; and DIA-YM,SPY-ES, despite looking for years. DIA,YM, & SPY,ES are much more closely related, than tek stocks in QQQQ. Real stretch getting bearish on whole market based on QQQQ, which has had trouble , staying above its 50 day ma,again, again ,again.Still below it. DIA,,,SPY much stronger this year than QQQQ; much more time above 50dma than QQQQ.
I think there is a divergence, and there will stay a divergence. There is no rule that says everything gets cleaned up.
================ You are right Giraffe & can sustain themselves for months; and have diverged for months, in past. Giraffe has long neck-short body. Not really picking on QQQQ, because they tend to outperform in 4th quarter; strange but true, William O'Neil shorting book , mostly shorting Tek stocks, in the past. Marc the Logical trader had a good point about the dangers of moving averages; not that that will stop many [including institutions] from occasionaly using them