the world must be ending for the market to correct like this! but let's not fret it could be up 50 by week's end! but no doubt waiting to short has been a losing game, and staying long has been a big winner thus catching some of a ONE day wonder (so far) is nothing to write home about or cause one to change a bullish posture.......... yet ! However the market always falls faster so it seems! So significantly more downside is doable here. short plays will outperform longs in next 5 months >>> JMHO. patience required however! Ice
I guess I should clarify. I said the yen because it is largest of the carry trade currency and would therefore have the largest impact if it were to rally and cut into the returns of funds using it to juice returns.
over many many years i have learned the only "credit" one gets for being "right" in the market is taking profits/making money............ the rest is all table talk!
One thing about markets is how fickle sentiment is. You can have every man and his dog "bearish" at 1400. At 1430 suddenly "everyone" is a bull. Then the market pukes 70 points in 3 weeks, and "everyone" is a bear again. I have seen countless moves where everyone seemed bullish 1 week before the top. 2 weeks later, everyone is crapping their pants. This is the trouble with an analysis like Maverick's. It doesn't matter if everyone is a screaming lunatic bear right now, because in as little as 24 hours that can turn on a dime. The "bearishness" only matters right here, right now. The moment the market sentiment shifts, if the short-term bias goes towards a down move, then that is all that matters. Short short short short short until that bias changes, just as it's been buy buy buy whilst the bias has been up. Remember, markets, like everything in economics, are not dominated by the majority. They are dominated by the marginal buyer and seller. There might be 100 houses on your street. The price for ALL of them is determined by the one, two, or three sales that happened in the last 6-12 months. 97 houses that might not have traded in 20 years, are priced based on the actions of 1-3% of that ownership community. It is exactly the same in stocks. It's the 2-3% on the margin that matter, not the 97% who have the same view now as they did at S&P 1200.