thats bs and propaganda from the media to make people think theres bears so they keep buying.market vane and investors intelligence are showing some of the highest bullish % in the last few years. put to call ratio is average and showing no bearishness and the vix is 10.show me a person that comes on cnbc or fox thats bearish? i've seen none.its funny if there's 5 bears around then that means its bullish for stocks. whens theres 1 million bulls its also bullish. the same talking heads that are telling you to buy now were telling us to load at naz 5000 and never forget that.
I agree Joey. No question, everyone was leaning bearish in early Sept thru Oct, all figuring the market would follow the normal Sept-Oct correction. However, there is no way the same people who were burned short during the Sept-Oct rally were then going to start heavily shorting in early November. At this point, there isn't a self respecting bear left to broadcast his/her bearishness. There is still a sort of resigned and reluctant bullishness at these levels it seems.
if you think our market is irrational, take a look at hsi (china) ... crazy. looks like tech bubble ala 99 ...
I agree and disagree. Yes, I think most of the ET bears are looking for another line of work. The posting on ET the last 2 weeks has virtually come to a halt. I would bet half this message board took a pretty big hit and close to that probably threw in the towel. I think Nitro blowing out was a big tell. However, I disagree that there are no bears left. The macro bears are still there. And by macro I mean the bears that are short on fundamentals, not technicals. All the bears that think Gold is going to 2000 are still short equities. All the bears that think we are going to have runaway inflation that will cripple the economy are still short. All the bears that think the Dollar is going to zero are still short equities. I talk to some of these guys on a regular basis and they have a lot more staying power then the avg ETer, not to mention they are in other instruments that have performed well such as long Gold or short dollar. Let's not forget the oil is going to $120 guys. These guys firmly believe that oil is going to put us in a global depression. They are still short equities as well. And then we have the housing collapse guys. They are certainly not long equities. It's very myopic for people on ET to think that just because all the pikers on this board have been wiped out that the entire bear community across the world has also been wiped out. Not to mention, one of my favorite indicators I like to look actually shows the little guy is not that bullish either. The ISEE which is by far the best sentiment indicator out there, is an inverse put to call ratio. Only it removes all BD orders and it measures open only transactions. In other words, the piker index. It oscillates between 100 and 200 on avg with extreme readings as low as 60 to 70 and as high as 250 to 270. The higher the reading, the more bearish you would want to be. It successfully called the selloff in May almost to the day. It also called the low of the May/June selloff to the day when it got down to 63 or so. When this ISEE gets above 200, that's when I would start to get worried for the longs. In reality, the major tops have been closer to 250, but nothing wrong with getting out early. The problem is we have drifted to the high 100's but quickly pulled back everytime. This means the little guy is still buying puts. The ISEE went out at 114 yesterday, which believe it or not is starting to become very bullish again. If we break 100, and I doubt we will, but if we do, I would not want to be short this market. Here's the link to the ISEE. http://www.iseoptions.com/marketplace/statistics/sentiment_index.asp
mav there's a flaw with your isee index this time.THE LITTLE GUY AIN'T COMING BACK PERIOD NO MATTER HOW HIGH WE GO AS HE HAS NO INTEREST IN THE MARKET AFTER BEING THRASHED IN 2000. obviously joe six pack is hurting as the dem's sweep it all. there's a huge disconnect between wall street and main street as the rich get richer and the middle to lower class are drowning in debt. i think were all the comparisons are flawed is bulls are looking for a 99-2000 type mania run or they're convinced all are bearish. 99-2000 was a once in a lifetime run and won't be repeated for decades so bulls waiting for that will be very disappointed. in 1929 the market kep running as fundamentals kep falling only to crash.none of us have any idea what can end this or when. but this being the 3rd longest bull in history coming right after the crashing of the biggest bubble of all time doesn't bode well for this lasting much longer. AND MANY HAVE FORGET THE COMMERCIALS THE SMARTEST MONEY OUT THERE ARE HUGE SHORT.also another bearish possible event is many foreign markets are on stiltsafter 4-5 fold 4 year runs and could get hit hard at any time. time will tell what happens
Every major spread across the world is so compressed that stocks are the only place left to grab any kind of return. Interest rate spreads non existent, credit spreads new lows, no currency volatility, and option premiums are tiny. However, the yen could stop the rally if it has a major move into year end.
Chanster, The ISEE is not about telling you who's holding what cards at the table, but rather sentiment. And yes, it's very effective, and no, I don't like the "it's different this time" argument. First of all, this rally has not been that significant, how are you labelling this the 3rd biggest bull mkt ever? So what, we have rallied 180 handles on the spoos. You really think that is significant? Come on, this rally has been very orderly, maybe too much so. The volatility has been non existent, no irrational exuberance here. I fail to comprehend your argument. I don't know anyone that thinks this is 1999 all over again. Most of the guys that are long, are long on technicals. I don't know many technical traders that have price tgts or make outlandish statements like it's 1999 all over again. I'm sure as soon as this moving avg cross over that one or when this doji star appears or when some other divergence takes place, they will get out. They could care less about where the market is at. The common public is long this mkt only from the standpoint that their IRA's and 401k's are invested as well as their pensions. I highly doubt ma and pa kettle are out there trying to time this thing. And the little guy is not the one who is moving this market, it's the hedge funds. Here is a sobering thought for you. We currently have 120 trillion dollars, that's trillion, in derivatives exposure out there. This is all hedge fund money. These guys are moving the market, not joe sixpack who is pissed about the elections. LOL. I'm sure we will get a healthy correction here soon enough. But why pick a top? The trader graveyard is full of top pickers. The best traders in the world know how to milk a trend and this trend deserves milking. I have no idea when it will end but there could be considerable more upside before it does.
very fascinating ideas... when you consider how much $$ in long US equities are possibly wrapped up into the carry trade (short yen long usd). btw, the yen has made a major strengthening move... If it crosses into 115/dollar territory, who knows the end of this thing.
I didn't know about the ISEE, Mav- so that was one of the best posts I've ever seen on ET. Thanx! One more thing: When this 4-month old rally spike <i>does</i> end, IMO it will end with a few months of sideways action- not a U-turn selloff spike going the other way.