I'm not a permabull. I'm going to guess at the following: 1. The market is designed to frustrate the most amount of people 2. It is too clean for "overbought+virus" to be the top 3. Although the rate of change of accounts going long is positive for the last week, 67% are still short the market. What does the chart say to you?
1. That might be true, but I believe traders are too caught up in their own stubborn opinion that they remain blind (both bulls and bears alike). 2. I think that's better left unsaid. However, every important macro events seem to COINCIDE with important pivot points on the chart. Don't ask me why, they just do. 3. I don't follow Put/Call ratio. We'll find out sooner or later.
Welp in the main I don't consult charts to gain an impression on market direction, I use scores of rows and columns of data in a spreadsheet. Thursday's close indicated a bounce but Friday did the opposite which indicates that atm bears are in control as they ran over the bulls not allowing them their way. However that is only a very short term impression as most stocks and indices are still longterm bullish.
Good point. Even if we reverse here, there's no point in catching the exact top or the bottom. Most of the opportunities are actually concentrated in the middle.