Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by brad1970, Jul 25, 2002.
There's people reading this board as we speak who do !
Originally posted by trade555
35 pcts a week is easy don't let any of this negative bias about trading is hard discourage you. Just trade enough size and 35 pcts is a piece of cake. The trick is to dollar cost average. Keep buying on the way down and doubling up then sell the first pop. Ther are some short cuts to learn faster like moving averages and stochastic. These tools make a trader more sophisticated and broke.
* - You must work for a big fund - its amazing to think that people entrust their hard earned life savings to these funds and the above is exactly how the fund managers trade and think
Notice the last word "broke" I am just being a sarcastic.
A song that relates to trading, in that tattoos (paper trading) and Scars (real trading) are different things.
Brad, I don't know anything about your system, but I would suggest that if you feel it is ready trade it. I will submit that dividing the expected results by 10 will give you an approximate expectancy. The problem with backtesting is that there is no guarantee that you would have been filled on a good signal that turns good, but there is a 100% chance you would be filled on a good signal that turns bad.
My week went something like this.
Monday made a nice profit.
Tuesday, realized I could have doubled Monday's profit if I had just held on until Tuesday.
Wednesday blew half of weeks profits being a stupid piggy piggy.
Thursday, still pissed about the piggy piggy incident from Wednesday, could not focus.
Friday not a bad day. Not a bad week. Throw out the want ads until next week.
It is a very hard business, anyone who says otherwise is lying or very good, the problem is you will never know which until it's too late. Start SMALL. Focus on making a profit, not how much profit.
ok - makes sense - i did not see your slightly later post which is right on the money!
but still frightening that big funds do trade on that basis and have pissed away everyones pension money in Europe with averaging down - and then having to dump on fast down moves and then missing the rebound
they got away with it for years with the "buy for the long term" mantra - i.e. by the time the shit hits the fan - i will be working for a new firm
can't get away with that now!
Don't take this as a wise ass response. I sat next to a trader who traded like that and he has been around for 50 years. Averaging down does work if you have been trading for years and know when to and when not to. The guy I sat next to was making low 8 figures and now doesn't trade at all. He is waiting for a market that he can do this again. The way he learned this is by being a specialist and a market maker. This is how most specialists trade. But again he knows when he can get away with it. This is also the reason that in 87 a lot of small specialist firms went under.
Spark, we are in a period of unusually high volatility. The ES does not typically have a range of 40 points in a day. Not more than a few months ago we were typically getting daily ranges of 10 to 20 points in the ES.
In the past, you would have to be very careful about fading a 20 point move, because there is a good chance that it would be a one-way trend up or down all day long. I would expect that we will start having less volatility and the daily range will return to a more normal range.
Exactly! Take what the market gives you. This week was perhaps the most volatile week in years.
I just finished flipping through my weekly Value Line Survey. In this issue they touted the fact that the average VL stock was down 2.7% over the past year. I then flipped to my WSJ and looked at how the Value Line Funds have performed. Down anywhere from 10% to 25% over the past year.
Few thoughts on this, the first being that what used to work and what is working now, may not work in the future. So there is a need to be flexible.
The second is that I am sure that both sets numbers are correct, the 2.7% and the 10%-25%, but the difference in practice is caused by slippage, commissions, and human judgement/error.
This can be a good strategy if you are well capitalized and have a strategy in mind. For instance, I have being buying bits and pieces of stuff over the past few weeks. When the market rises I will scale out bit by bit. But none of this stuff is merchandise that I have to get rid of anytime soon. And all of it is paying me to wait, so that is ok.
However, my loss on Wednesday was caused by adding to a losing trade, I just felt like the market would break again. Stupid, kinda stuff that will bankrupt you. And I could have added all week and never got back to even.
trdrmac.. interesting numbers.. i wonder about some of these funds.. the decline was so fast and now with the redemptions they surely must be having.. i wonder how many of them have sold positions near the bottom and dont have any cash to take advantage of any bargains.. although, in my opinion we havent seen bottom yet..
as far as doubling down.. if a strategy calls for getting long/short in a certain area as opposed to a specific price, then i could see how that might be a useful concept.. or when trading pairs where a move against you is perceived as an opportunity to add to your position.. but for the average joe its like having 3 girlfriends at the same time.. its fun for a while, but eventually they find out and kill you..
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