You're right, of course, Waggie. But, I think oil is going to rule stock market direction short term. If the Saudis can cap oil around $40 then the expansion continues. If it starts climbing out of here toward $50 we take a double dip in the economy and the stock market.
Assuming that we somewhat believe the economic numbers and earnings to be real and not inflated by cheap money, I agree. And we have to hope that nothing truly bad happens in Iraq or from the terrorists. The economy should stabilize and the debt picture has to improve. Looks like the market is pricing that in and the country is slowly fixing the problem. This is an optimistic view, I mean, we never know what can happen. I'm not ignoring the house of cards situation, but it is in no one's interest to call out that the emperor is naked.
If oil were to get to $50.00 per barrel . . . I don't think that Dubya would get re-elected in November. There are simply too many SUV drivers out there that vote Republican. I am still sticking with an initial target of 1073 SPX. I also believe that a 54 TD cycle is coming in on Thursday, the day of the release of the PPI, just before Friday's CPI release. Perhaps these economic releases will flush out enough longs to give rise to enough pessimism for a short-term tradeable low. Moreover, it is interesting to note that the amount of funds that are short the long bond are at some extremely high numbers heading into Friday's CPI release. In the meantime, the recent rally in the Semi's has produced a huge rise in the percentage of stocks trading above their 13-day moving average, jumping to 78% from 19%the day before, and up from 0% last week. It will be interesting to see if the Semis can hold their recent lows and show signs of relative strength. Stay nimble. Happy Trading!
Hah! waggie, nothing to say to me about MY portfolio?! The best you can do is attack trendfader?? I guess you can't knock someone who has been 100% on the mark!
YOUR PORTFOLIO??? Since when have you shared with us what is in "your" Portfolio??? Oh I forgot, that would be too personal. Just like where you say you obtained your MBA from! You are a total charlaton, with ZERO credibility. YOUR PORTFOLIO . . . That's Funny!!!
I tell you what, ye of much bitterness and jealousy, if you tell us where you went to school (undergrad and grad), although i'm sure you didn't attend grad school, and exactly where you live, i'll do the same.