Wow. That is exactly the very same method that Trend Fader uses to continually short the IWM . . . He showed me how to do it one day, including "fudging" the lines going through the so-called "highs" so that he could "fit" everything into his Perma-Bear forecast . . . Could you be him???
I'll leave it up to you to "inquire" about what "simple trendline analysis" really is . . . I know how much you enjoy people that use technical analysis that manipulates data. Should be a highly entertaining discussion. Enjoy!
That's called a channel. However, if your bottom line is parallel to your upper line, it is currently at around 1130. What makes you think price will reach 1120, much less "bust" through it?
This was my attempt at the "make it pretty" concept. Been watching this since early January. All through the uptrend RSI stayed just above 30, 21 MA was just above 50, and MACD histogram was just barely positive. All of that has changed now, and there is some negative divergence on the MACD. I don't actually trade with TA, but I think this is interesting. Maybe some true TA's could offer some comments.
Given your settings, there are no divergences. The RSI indicates trendlessness and the MACD is tracking the downward movement of price. Nothing remarkable.
OK I was mistaken about the divergence, but I thought the RSI dip below 30 in early Feb was something.
Yes, a channel. You are correct that if it was completely parallel it would be 1130. But I flatten the bottom channel line to coincide with the support at 1120-1125. So it's not exactly parallel. There are too many people who continue to think "buying the dips" is the proper way to go. And there are too many people who feel we will stay in the "range". I'm a contrarian. Usually corrections begin with the S&P touching a new high first, and it did that last friday. The high price of oil isn't helping. And the rise in bond prices is telling us that the economy isn't in the full blown recovery mode we are expected to believe. Do you agree?
Whether it dips below 30 or not depends on your settings. The only thing that the RSI told you in February was that price was lower than it had been n bars ago.
Do I agree with your lines? No. Lateral and channel support are two different lines. Do I agree that corrections begin with new highs? Of course. How else would you define a correction? However, being a contrarian means more than just disagreeing with everybody. In a range, one buys support and sells resistance. If you have reasons for abandoning this strategy, then we'll just have to wait and see whether those reasons are sufficient or not.
From experience, it is going to take a lot more than 1 week to turn around a 2 year+ uptrend. Even if it is "the" top, a more likely scenario is a prolonged trading range where the bulls become discouraged and give up. time will tell, but for your sake.. i hope you're right. some people on this board are ruthless.