It’s not about predicting at all, it’s about managing uncertainty, that’s why risk management is critical. Of course, even simple protection like buying a protective Put or swapping a long stock for a Call is going to be a drag on the performance, just like a safety harness and a roll cage in a racing car will be a drag on its performance. It comes down to what one values more. It’s up to each individual to fine tune their own risk appetite in the markets.
It would be nVidia announcing the POTUS chip, an AI so powerful we wouldn't need either of those two codgers in the White House. Chippy for prez 2024!
The s&p is only down around 5% from its highs and you can already feel the hysteria and craziness....trillions wiped off global markets in literally hours, this is exactly what I spoke about when I said how a simple correction in the markets would cause this depression like state. Again the s&p is still above 5000, a drop of another 500 points would be just a 10% move lower and that alone would cause panic, even though markets are still at historic highs.
Down 5% on no macro event!! 20% more to go and that still only puts the s s&p above 4000, which is October 2023 lows ..imagine a 25% drop that.only brings the s&p down to October 2023 low! That's how rapidly and forcefully these markets jumped in only 9 months! And the reason for that jump was becsuse of the fed pivot and idea that there were going to be rate cuts in 2024!!!!