S&P 500 - when sh*t hits the fan

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Drawdown Addict, Jan 9, 2025.

  1. #31     Jan 13, 2025
  2. Wide Tailz

    Wide Tailz

    Warren Buffet's first rule: don't lose money.
     
    #32     Jan 13, 2025
  3. it's just a tiny piece of the puzzle

    Imagine all those 401K & IRA flows that are allocated into passive funds and ETFs (IVV and the like).
    If passive ain't selling, then who does? Apparently insiders cash out on this huge ponzi scheme.

    There's lot of writing on passive flows by Michael Green which really makes one to think what is going on and how it might end.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2025
    #33     Jan 14, 2025
  4. Such a good start. The SP500 doesn't seem to notice it. Does it need a couple of days to reflect?

     
    #34     Jan 15, 2025
  5. It won't ever crash because there's a permanent V force. I still am amazed more don't see this market for what it is. No such animal as a crash or even a downtrend. Every down move is just on borrowed time wether is's a few hours day or even weeks. Then it just rips a massive V. happens over and over again. So no, no shit will ever hit any fan the way this market is setup. And no, it's not changing any time soon or ever. You can't trust any down move to actually hold It won't. Doesn't matter why or how, it's eventually ripping a V very shortly after the drop.
     
    #35     Jan 16, 2025
  6. Is this becoming an Elon fanboy thread?




    voPElTR.jpeg
     
    #36     Jan 17, 2025
  7. Recession and high unemployment --> people draw cash from their invetsments make ends meet.
    If downtrend is coming, it will be feirce, as all passive will have to sell at once, and value buyers will be waiting at much lower levels.
     
    #37     Jan 17, 2025
  8. Not true. The dip will be bought every step of the way. There's too much money in the system. It's just not going away ever. Plus everyone knows every dip is a gift, so you won't see panic selling. Everyone knows its a guarantee that any drop would be the steal of a lifetime. People are seeing that holding stocks and buying dips= wealth generating opportunity.
     
    #38     Jan 17, 2025
  9. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    You seem unaware how markets work. If Trump induces a recession and higher inflation then markets will correct hard. There was no V in 2009 or 2000-2001. The only thing you are right about is some value based plays do really well in these scenarios, but they take patience and good choices because some companies just go under or milk their investors with refinancing deals.
     
    #39     Jan 17, 2025
  10. Are you not watching the market every day? We are living in algo mania with all the 0DTE options growing by the day. The market can't stay down without ripping a V. You can't even compare the market to the past. It never traded like this. There's just way more money involved with more short term bets. There's no way they are just going to give you a nice easy downtrend. You will have to work like crazy to make any money in a corrective market, fighting off pumps along the way that will destroy all your options. Then without notice it ends and makes a massive V and the volatility is gone for months.
     
    #40     Jan 17, 2025