I think, we are ready for a bounce.... http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-put-call-ratio-equity-20d-sma-params-3y-x-x/
we gonna bounce but what is important where do we stop first. I thought that the "market" (I am referring to dow here) was going to 8000 and maybe slightly below (like 7800-7900) but it seems "stubborn". RUT had no problem behaving "properly" But I am going to be watching the way dow opens on monday. If it does not open substantially lower (gap down) the market could easily go to 9000-9500 in a few days.
I do not understand the $SPX vs putcall 20ma, but the trend is still down. We're still making lower lows and highs. Downtrend resistance needs to fail - we gotta gain about 100 points to do that, then it needs to hold. Trend indicates we're more likely to break down than up. Who knows? - take it day by day. Steve
Your triangle ends about election day. I still think we could see a large wave down, but maybe Obama comes out strong with a team in place and fundemntals overpower technicals.
I think the market's been trading on fundamentals for at least the last few months. IMO, the market needs to see an improvement in unemployment........without jobs, economy gets worse, bear continues. 1215 area on the NQs a key area to watch. Steve
You know, I've been thinking about this, and I remember the huge dip that hit the market during election day, when it feared Kerry would win, then the huge rally when it realized Bush would win. I think the markets would welcome an Obama victory, in the short term. Right now the current administration has no perceived credibility on economic matters. When Bush or Paulson or Bernanke talk, the market loses value. So a new administration might be welcomed by the market. The other thing is that one of the few times the market got a big pop after an announcement occurred when we had the coordinated international interest rate drops. The market like to favor coordinated international solutions rather than US-driven solutions. And Obama is very much the internationalist when compared to Bush. Just my two cents.
I agree with your points. Obama has bullish sentimet right now....and his first few moves after Nov 4 will be partisan...so I am more incline to see a rally after a short reality dip. I do see a sharp bear move after Jan 20 when the whole cartel get back to DC...I can only imagine some of the crazy ideas coming out.
Maybe, but take a look at this, it's the VIX vs S&P. Notice, how the VIX consolidated and then broke much higher Friday than the S&P broke lower after consolidation? Of course, if you took a look at the inverted VIX, you would say, "Oh, that's an obvious break to the downside." Also, the P/Call ratio is making higher highs/lows. I don't think we're quite out of the woods yet, but I hope that I am dead wrong. Provocative. http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-vix-1d-sma-params-2y-x-x/