S&P 500 Views and Trading

Discussion in 'Trading' started by PivoTTurner, Jun 17, 2007.

What Level Should S&P 500 Be This Week?

Poll closed Jun 23, 2007.
  1. 1560

    11 vote(s)
  2. 1550

    2 vote(s)
  3. 1540

    3 vote(s)
  4. 1530

    5 vote(s)
  5. 1520

    3 vote(s)
  6. 1500

    6 vote(s)
  7. 1480

    10 vote(s)
  1. This is my first post here, and I usually posted in my blog, any question or correction are welcome.

    Fundamental views:

    Last week, S&P was boosted by retail sale and CPI, etc.

    This week, we don¡¯t have much heavier fundamental news. However, the following must closely watch.

    Monday, US NAHB, forecast 29. Tuesday Canada CPI expected 0.4%. US Housing starts forecast at 1.48M, Building permits at 1.47 M. Wednesday GBP MPC meeting minutes might be important to British inflation level. Thursday, US leading index expected at 0.2%.

    For international market, FTSE, DAX are in all time high, CAC is near all time high. Nikkei is still stressful below 18000. For commodity market weighted, Aussie market is losing some momentum because the bounce isn¡¯t as same scale with others. After 3 days huge down, China market quickly gained back near to all time high again and HS (Kong Kong) is just at the corner for all time high.

    Fundamentally, S&P should trade flat this week for less news events. If Aussie market can¡¯t catch up quickly, that means commodity market might need a serious correction. Overall international markets submit a mixed signal for S&P, from this view, it should trade volatile with more flat bias.

    Technical views:

    Last week¡¯s rally should bring some up side for S&P. However, the all time closing high 1540 might be resistance. The scenario is very clear: A either double tops or break out to all time high.

    The pattern, a miniature of Feb. 27, shows there is a more chance for breakout. On the other hand, the 3 soldiers didn¡¯t break out the line (1540) controlled by 3 crows, that brings a little bit bearish. The up trend is broken and the retest is successful. With Nasdaq, DJI has already returned their up trend, I would say SP broken trend isn¡¯t much weighted. From time line, now we are entering a slow trading period, any bad event can lead a double top or false break.

    The triple (or quad, whatever) witch OE might get a hangover this Monday. If the hangover pulls back more then 10 pts that bring a bearish view.

    The weekly inside candle showed S&P lost its up momentum and a slight down side bias on the way.

    Overall TA, it is up side bias.

    COT Data for last week:

    Commercial: 552437 contracts long, 557636 contracts short, neutral with a little bit bearish. This was first week since 4/10, commercial had more short than long. But there is no big difference. However, I believe, this week, Commercial should have more short than longs that should bring S&P more bearish view.
    Change in commercial long all: 49648. Change in commercial short all: 55150 . and this is third week, commercial add more shorts than longs especially the week 6/5, which add more then 10000 short contracts. From here, S&P might be starting to go bearish slowly.

    Pivot Point

    Classic: 1531.53 (R1: 1540.09, R2: 1547.27, R3: 1563.01, S1: 1524.35, S2, 1515.79, S3: 1500.05)
    Woodie: PP 1528.15 (R1: 1533.33, R2: 1543.89, R3: 1549.07, S1: 1517.59, S2, 1512.41, S3: 1501.85)
    From this week FA, I prefer to Woodie (conserve side)

    Resistance Levels

    1540.56 ¨C all time closing high.
    1552 ¨C All time intraday closing high.
    1562 ¨C Fibo (1363 this year low, 1461, this year break)

    Support Levels

    1525 ¨C 5/22, 23. 24 congestion
    1513, 1515 ¨C 5/9 high, 6/11 neckline
    1500 ¨C Key number

    Directional Bias:

    Nearer Term (1-3 days) ¨C Neutral
    Short Term (1-2 weeks) ¨C Neutral
    Medium Term (1-2 months) ¨C Bearish
    Long term (6 months -1 year) ¨C bullish

    Weekly Trading Range:

    High: 1552

    Low: 1550

    Monday Trading Range:

    High 1540

    Low 1422

    My projected Price for this week: 1510

    My projected price for Monday: 1528
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  2. wshhmm



    I think classic pivot is more acurate than woodie, what do your guys think?

    Also, I think Treasury needs to pay more attention and any up in yield should be negative to the SP.

    Any idea?
  3. After 6:00pm open, till now NZ 50 is up near 1.88%. However, ES is down 0.75 from its open. Usually NZ 50 has little impact on ES. I am waiting 8:00pm ASX open, which should have much impacts.

    Both AUD and NZD got slight down after 5:00pm open in forex trading.

    The news side: NZ central bank sold currency today and RBNZ is mulling implementing a tax on capital gains related to rental properties that are sold in order to slow the housing market according to NZ Herald.

    In April, Chinese investor sold the most US treasuries in 7 years; In April China sold a net of $5.88B Treasury according to US treasury.

    and Carry trading Eur/Aud-JPY got all time high again.
  4. Agreed.
  5. why isnt there a selection for 1600??

    SPX to 1600 by Friday baby $$$
  6. be reasonably, I don't think so, sorry.

    also 7:20pm Nagoya stock exchagne open and 8:00 pm Tokyo stock exchagne open will have bigger impact than ASX.

    Of course, 9:30 pm China Shanghai market open will have most impact to ES before Euro market open.

    I expect ASX trades flat and NiKKi trade also flat. A firmly above 18000 for Nikki should have positve impact to ES.

    I also expect SSEC (china shanghai stock composite) will trade slight up with volatility and it is key period to SSEC for Chinese government's efforts to control the bubble.
  7. 1546 is short term support before euro market open.

    here is a chart.

    and Nikkei 225 futures open at 18190 vs last close 17971.
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  8. S2007S


    1560, markets only go one way, no need for any other option lower than 1530 because this market is going straight up. 14k by end of JUNE
  9. chinese brokerage account openings has slowed down to half of what it was last month.

    and some of the public was interviewed, and they are waiting to sell off their loosing positions from the recent downturn to breakeven.

    edit: since most equity markets are legalized pyramid schemes, once you start loosing the next tier of buyers, the tiers who have holdings are stuck at inflated prices. And if you can't short the market, selling the holdings is the next best thing, since your locking in a price historically will never be seen for a few years.
  10. Your point might make sense in super bull market. However, general speaking, market trades zigzag up.
    #10     Jun 17, 2007