S&P 500 very close to intermediate term top

You no-risk longs shouldn't mess the diaper quite yet: although you're still underwater those 25 SP points, you could get them in a blink. Until then, of course, the intermediate-term top is secure.

 

I agree with Chood.

Next week will begin a new leg down.

 

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1508862&highlight=july#post1508862

:eek: :eek: :eek:

 

Not sure why you're bringing up this post permabull,
but the S&P DID go below 1500 after I posted this.

And I maintain that it will go even lower than that in July.

 

fridays midday weaking in the S&P (now @ 1525) does not bode well for next week.
look for < 1500 next week.

 

Very frustrating for the no-risk longs, especially after they got within 16 points of break even. Now they've got even further to go to get even. More disappointment ahead, I'm afraid.

 

Totally frustrating day for longs... lmao

 

Leave it to you to take significance from a day of trading in which half the Street is on vacation.

 

I believe 'Zapper is correct, although not for any reason evident from tape reading this afternoon's equities action. In case you've missed it, we are in a bear market for bonds. Consequences for equities are inevitable.

I'm so convinced that I'll short the S&P front month pre-open Monday, on expectation that today's bonds losses won't be recouped by mid-day Monday. Monday afternoon sets up for sheep shearing de luxe, or at least as table setting for the rest of next week and the month of July.

Index wise, come daybreak Monday, I'll be on the giving end of the shears. I'm there already in individual stocks -- positioned only I mean, because thus far, in those short positions, I'm the shearee, not the shearer. Those shorts include a position added just today (MAR). Nothing dissipates faster than sector helium (hotels in this case) in a light volume week.

 

As usual, Bloomberg is johnny on the spot. Lead from article dated tomorrow (available on the web now):

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- The bear market in U.S. Treasuries is just getting started as investors turn their attention to the strengthening labor market and faster inflation instead of the decline in home prices.

That's the conclusion of economists at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Morgan Stanley and RBS Greenwich Capital. They estimate 10-year government notes will return 1.28 percent this year, not even enough to cover inflation. The performance would be the worst since 1999, when they lost 8.25 percent, Merrill Lynch & Co. index data show.