How do you define close in terms of time and points? 1 day? 1 month? 6 months? if it crashes in 2 months, will you claim to have accurately predicted it?
I think your post marked the exact top for today and possibly the intermediate term top i'm looking for !
If their were no such thing as the sp futures I would agree with you. Its just to easy to float the futures up overnight, then we gap open and the fund managers sell to johnny come lately. Sit up one night and watch how the offers get pulled and up up up we go.
technical a/d erosiion, high bull sentiment, previous highs of 1520 in 2000 setting up double top formation
It may get goosed a little higher after the crude inventories, we all know they will show plenty of inventory. Equities will push higher then the funds will start unloading at nice price levels, thanks to the wonderful futures, the perfect tool for manipulation.
CATALYSTS! What has changed since last year? The Fed is ALWAYS an issue, and how can you have an oil market without Iran/Iraq Geo-politics? It's the only "THREAT" that gives instant volatility to that market, or the economy for that matter. Without it, why trade. It would be the slowest market of all. My point is, nothing changes but the spin. The market doesn't need a "catalysts" to go ANYWHERE. Don't fall victim to those CNBC those buzzwords. I watched everybody here and elsewhere calling for a 10% correction after the Feb. sell off. IMO, that was an instant buy signal. Once people stop looking for a top or bottom we might finally get one.