This was part I of a supporting case I made for a slight high upto the 1253 Fib 61.8 strong resistance. On the 15th July.
Note where in each case the resistance and support is spot on the Fibonacci Spiral. Yesterday the retrace was completed (from the 7th (tragedy low) to the strong climb which accompanied the Euros. The next major Fib point is the 61.8% of altime high to the Oct low which is 1253. I have a time cycle count of the 27th next week. This particular spiral is bang-on those significant points and you'll notice I have chosen the CMC futes chart to highlight Fibonacci governance in the pre-open action and the spot-on hits there too. Addendum I should also add one needs to assign the points of contact which in this case were 1219, 1206 and 1183 so the recent cross of the spiral over the price is not preceded in any way (in other words the spiral falls on those points thus validates the outlook for higher prices). The equivilent is not quite the same for the DJIND but close enough (let's not forget the DJIND is divergent in pattern)
There is a lot of confusion about; "Is the Dow in a bull market or bear market and is it going up or going down?" Going up does not denote a bull market and vice versa however when we get one action at the BOTTOM of a bear market and the OPPOSITE at the TOP of the bull market then something is awry, astray and quite obvious when it jumps off the page or screen. If memory serves me correctly, when the large blues lag and are in a funk, yet the smaller caps take off, AT THE BOTTOM of a bear market, then this is a healthy sign, indeed, a bull market signal to go long with a long-term view. If memory also serves me correctly then the same divergence of the smaller caps versus the big 30 AT THE TOP of a (supposed bull market) of a move then is a bearish signal. Yes? No? Maybe? Still confused? The SPX and DJIND are not that far in retesting the altime highs. This is not a bear market bottom. The psychology is at a premium high (the opposite to a bear market bottom). The US economy has given us some good numbers in the last two weeks (the economy always lags the stock market). Ah, the oil thingy, whatsit...yeah, heard this one-liner before...the fundamental argument...at what price does oil effect US equities cos they don't seem to be effecting the FTSE or the CAC or the DAX or the XJO or the .....(yet, you say) and how much higher are the US majors compared to when crude was at 20/bbl? Looking at the charts you'd think the action proves the bull market case and higher highs and higher lows is the definition of a bull market isnt it? I have been saying for some time that I think the US is in a counter-trend bounce and for a fleeting moment yesterday I almost bought into the idea I was completely wrong..... Maybe everything I've known about bull markets is wrong...you know, maybe the psychology is allowed to be really high in a bull market....maybe the pattern is supposed to look like a bounce when its trending upwards....maybe the record deficits are ok and nobody gives them much heed because debts always get paid down...hey some debts are even being forgiven for some countries (nah, that's a bitter remark eh)....so.... why does this picture look so ...well...wrong? Who me? Go long in this weather? I'd have to be tewwibbly, tewwibbly dwunk! Which picture? This picture. The divergence, at what I think is, the wrong end ! ============================================== The above is my observation from the 13 July 05. See charts.
perfect analysis. if he keeps on claiming each top in the S&P he will sooner or later be right at least 1 time and hit the real top. But even my youngest son is able to do that.
10.10 AEST and GOOG is showing 316.7 and a nice punch up from short covers in futes upto 1242.5 SPX on CMC
jealousy is such an ugly emotion. tsk tsk. hey spike, no answer on our $25K bet on my 10 year audit? rooster in your mouth? or in your sons? how hurtful to get negative feedback from someone who just registered
rubberbird always taking the higher road when wrong. i got to say today can be interesting and someone wrong can become right fast. i am sure even the bird can admit market seems strong after the news.
not quite sure where i'm wrong, amigo. you tell me i always take the high road, in life in particular. i suggest others follow my lead. the high road = happy, good life
rooster in your mouth? or in your sons? i guess thats not really the high road in my book. i sold all my calls this morning in ebay. i think the news adds alot of risk to the down side. the crazy thing is the markets seem to be hanging in fine.