S&P 500 looking very toppy

Discussion in 'Trading' started by rubberbird, Jun 20, 2005.

Is the S&P 500 about out of gas?

  1. Yes, rubberbird is usually correct

    67 vote(s)
    33.3%
  2. No, there's more upside ahead

    46 vote(s)
    22.9%
  3. I don't know/ I don't care/ the bird is an idiot

    88 vote(s)
    43.8%
  1. Spike:

    I don't know if you remember but we had previously discussed the subject of increasing position size, something you were against because of your past experiences given the increased risk associated with growth.

    What happened to me, is that once my acct went over 100K my risk grew as my acct grew. And obviously I paid the price for not having a good money mgmt system in place.

    I just read a book titled "The Trading Game" by Ryan Jones.

    In it, the author explains how one can
    exponentially increase the size of your acct while at the same time DECREASING your risk.
    It's beautiful and he makes it very easy to understand.

    I am sure you could find it very helpful.

    Cheers !
     
    #201     Jul 14, 2005
  2. Thanks, for answering, Spike ))

    I have tried a lot of ideas, inspired by your thread "real or fake".
    I think i have found something, that gives signals compared to signals that your system probably gives too.

    As far as I understood the shortest time frame you use is 3min, I looking for stuff working in 1 minutes in ER2, because that contract really fast and 3 minutes in Euro.

    Of course i have no 85% profitable trades still ;) But I like the win/loss that system potential can give..

    But the weak of this system is that it it doesn't give almost any signals then the day is strictly trending from the open.. It doesn't gives signals right at the open if the move is direct and strong..

    Is that normal for your system, or it's trying to catch all big moves usually ?

    It' s pity but the trades you gave for one week a month ago, was right at rollover week and with e-signal i have no possibility to look carefully on that charts to research and try generate some more ideas :(

    May I ask you to give examples for any other week for the last month ? I will be very appreciate. Anyways thank you very much, you already give us, who are looking a lot of valuable information

    :cool:
     
    #202     Jul 14, 2005
  3. BTW,
    my system closed that short 1232.5 right an hour later from it's opening by the price 1229.75.

    Giving nice entries, i strongly believe that I need to improve my exits. guess i should have more statistics to be done to know there the exit must be.
     
    #203     Jul 14, 2005
  4. OK. The S&P finally penetrated the 1225 level, and we'll see if that's resistance. But it did return too close to 1225 for the birds comfort. The bird did not envision it launching back to this level. Oh well.

    I hope there are those who listened to the birds latest rant about homebuilders. Maybe the Bird called the top here! Obviously, whomever picks the ultimate homebuilder top wins the grand prize.
     
    #204     Jul 14, 2005
  5. Mvic

    Mvic

    Bird i think you are right about the homebuilders. Going to short Tol in the am, CEO is selling with both hands.
     
    #205     Jul 14, 2005
  6. The third signal was long 1228.5 at 13:51 , out 1231,0 at 14:48.
     
    #206     Jul 15, 2005
  7. Make that TWO boots :)

    Sorry I hate to see anyone lose $$$.
     
    #207     Jul 15, 2005
  8. What in blue hell are you talking about delilah? I'm making on this set of trades, granted only a penny or two, but i'm plus.

    Don't be so quick to ass/ume, or you'll be placed in the ET hall of crap with the only other reigning member, the lithium kid.
     
    #208     Jul 15, 2005
  9. Mvic

    Mvic

    Bought a bunch of 06 and 07 Tol puts this am, was forced to buy the stock as a hedge when Merrill upgraded, will probably hold until the August call and dump the stock and stick with the puts.

    Should have just waited for the August call are originally intended but CEO selling with both hands spooked me.

    Changed my ES stop to just above 1234.
     
    #209     Jul 15, 2005
  10. I looked at the chart of TOL. Where did you find any argument to short this stock?

    About the ES: trend intraday is long i think
    :confused:
     
    #210     Jul 15, 2005