Nice call! I read your Radid journal. Great work there overall too. Hopefully you might start another that will benefit the members the way your previous one did. Check the number of views when you want to see if anyone is reading you.
I appreciate that. Unfortunately, you're not the moderator of "journals", so I don't have the freedom to know that my journal will not be fooled with. The moderator, magna, is more like a dictator without the real power (the worst kind). He screwed with my journal so much, it totally lost its straight forward message and quality market prognostications. It's safer over here! I do wish I could have stayed under a single handle, so people could have more easily followed my S&P trading calls.
I agree that it looks toppy. My reasons are these: -the daily chart has formed an macd divergence; -yesterday's trade down to the 40 sma did not bounce; If we do break down, my target would be the 200 day sma. -subjectively I just don't think the 500 has spent enough time hating life! We might not tank to remarkably low new lows, but certainly a 100-200 SP500 point trading range with the present local highs as the upper range seems reasonable for another 12-18 months. LOL, I can just see the fast and furious keyboard work from the "We're daytraders, we don't need no stinking opinion's" group. Heaven forbid one should actually have a longer view than the 3 moment chart.
Ok Romeo, I'll bite. The Spoos do look toppy and have formed what I see as a double top, but the NQ's have been making new highs and right now I see them as just pulling back. I think that before we see any kind of decent move down on the Spoos, we may have to see a retest of the NQ highs that may translate into a triple top on the Spoos. If, however, NQ's make a new high then we could see more of the same action as we have being seeing in the Spoos, ie consolidation with threatened breakdowns, or we could see the Spoos also make new highs. I wouldn't make any kind of prediction on one index without looking at the others. They can each pull the others.
I think it's a double top on the S&P thats already been formed. And that's the way I'm trading. The S&P won't be seeing any new highs anytime soon.
Romeo - You are right on. Only caveat is if the fed is proping up the markets then it might confuse the charts.
Be careful Romeo, you're lying once again. From your Jim Radid journal on 6/15/03: Your previous handle(s) have been banned from ET because you regularly get your panties in a twist and go into one of your hissy fits, most recently regarding a misunderstanding between inandlong and myself (that we amicably resolved). At that time you saw the need to start up a half-dozen separate threads fuming and bellowing for all to see. So don't attempt to rewrite history and claim your S&P calls in your journal were messed with, because anyone who has been around ET more than a few weeks knows they weren't.
My opinion is that we will see a bear run like none in your lifetime. Just look at the big picture and I think it would be hard to argue to find good. I come from the land of FOREX and I can testify the the good old USD has some major issues. She may look okay for now, but I think tough times are ahead. Her cousin the trade deficit won't help either. I believe in trading in the present, but with an eye on a big run down at some point. I think when not if is the magic question. If you look at a monthly chart, you may draw some different conclusions. I think there is still room left to move up. A double bottom formed in March and it does not look like a normal pullback. There was a strong divergence signal in the MACD and an elbow in the stochastic. Even if it is a pullback, it is still moving up strong. Many times the strongest moves come at the top of the Stochastic turn. As for the double top, I see it and I am trading it today, but William O'Neil may argue a different formation. Just my $12.50.
In the short term, maybe we will see this, hell who knows, this should give everybody a laugh. I think we will top again. If I get the divergence in my MACD and Stochatic, which I expect, then price will move down. I have drawn this out. LOL. If you study the peaks of my indcators you will see that the recent top did give me a divergence in the MACD, but the stochastic is questionable. This is why I think price will move back up first and then retreat. However, no idea if it will break this critical peak. My guess is not this time. If I can think of it, I will post what actually happens in a few days.