Like I said it looked like a double top. Short 20 es at 1010 (thanks Bling Bling that first short gave me the confidence to put on the others), another 20 at 1005, another 20 at 997. Am I pleased, yes and no. I missed the whole move in the bonds. How often does a trade like that come along? Basically I still have a hell of allot to learn and I have been doing this for 2 decades.
This market going south soon mentality is getting old! My trading today did very good going long in over 75% of my trades today! I would love for the market to start a nice run here (for my other investments), but I like many others just trade whatever the market presents to us on a daily basis. I guess I get sick of the "bear for life" mentality. BTW, all my trades today were posted in a futures real time chat room. I did 18 pts per contract today....my second best day of the year. :eek:
This just in.... from CBSMarketwatch..... "Something like this has just happened with Richard Russell, septuagenarian superbear editor of Dow Theory Letters. Russell is among those I call the "geezers" - he edits one of the letters followed by the Hulbert Financial Digest that was around at the last bear market bottom in 1974. I check in with the geezers periodically (Read my July 29 column) on the theory that they might recognize the next bear market bottom when they see it. Quite recently, Russell was hinting that he might join the bullish camp - if the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) closed above 9,323.02. But now he has decisively declined to recognize a bear market bottom. In fact, he just announced in his Tuesday hotline that he expects the Dow to sell ultimately "at or below 3,000." Besides being a geezer, itself no mean achievement in a tough business, Russell is the top market timer since 1980, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest. Switching between T-bills and the Wilshire 5000 according to Russell's recommendations would have resulted in appreciation of 11.2 percent annualized. Buying the Wilshire and holding would have produced a 12.6 percent annualized gain. But Russell did it with 45 percent less risk -- a remarkable (and comforting) achievement. And over the past five years, Russell's timing has resulted in a portfolio appreciation of about 1 percent annualized, compared to a decline of 1.3 percent annualized for buying and holding. I admit to being fascinated by Russell. (See my March 31 column). Accordingly, I've been trying to restrain myself from writing too much about him. But what can I do? Russell is hot. Last month, he celebrated his 79th birthday by catching the big bond break. (Read Mark Hulbert's July 18 column). Now Russell is talking about a stock market break. On Wednesday night, he wrote: "The Wilshire 5000 has formed a huge head-and-shoulders top. The support comes in at 9333. Today, the Wilshire was trading at 9296! "The S&P Composite has formed a large head-and-shoulders top. Support comes in 974. Today the S&P is selling at 966..." Of course, on Thursday, both indexes struggled back to the support levels. The S&P reached 974, the Wilshire 9,362. But that has made no difference to Russell. On Thursday night, he added: "This sets up the potential for big breaks to the downside." And he elaborated: "Note that the Dow this morning is only 260 points from its June 17 high for the year...Yet back on June 6 there were 581 new highs on the NYSE. Here we are only 197 points below the June Dow high and today we got only 42 new highs. That's clear sign of technical deterioration." What is particularly arresting about this is that Russell has had striking success interpreting head-and-shoulder formations. In January 2002, he remained bearish on the overall market because he discerned one in the S&P 500 5-year chart. And he remained bearish when almost everyone, especially his fellow Dow Theorists, turned bullish that spring. He was right. (Read archived column). Similarly, he casually observed that another head and shoulders had appeared in AOL Time Warner (AOL: news, chart, profile), to be completed if the stock went below $31. By midsummer 2002 it was at $13. It closed Thursday at $15.03. 3,000 anyone?"
100 posts... So a quick shout out to the best moderator on ET, Inandllong, whose doing one heck of a fine job. As far as Inandlong's newsflash, its a shame that some super bear geezer would come to ET and steal my insights, without giving me the proper credit. Hey, I said double top / head and shoulders first, and he should cite me as his reference.
I think he did, it was probably edited for space by CBS... you know, they only have so much bandwidth.
Sometimes that happens to me. A couple of weeks ago I couldn't get in all day. I can only do editing functions. No banning, or locking out, or anything like that.
To clarify my earlier post, the chat room I post realtime trades in is #FuturesTrades. This room and access to it is listed on the website www.thestrategylab.com. The #FuturesTrades chat room has been a great help for me! I have never used a chat room before while trading, but I really enjoy the interaction and exchange of ideas realtime while trading!
A quick update, I still think the S&P looks very toppy, and more specifically, that what has occured in the last month IS a top. Now please, let's keep the posts relevant to a "very toppy looking S&P"