although i don't care much about longterm - i found this pretty interesting: http://www.zealllc.com/2003/waterfall.htm
Weekly updated for 5/29/03 <img src = "http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=262605">
Well, here we are again at the top of the current monthly range and at the neckline of the so-called head and shoulders(if indeed it is one, which is debatable) on the monthly S&P 500. It will be interesting to see if buyers can trigger a large up move breakout here or will we continue the same old song and dance and head back down. Stay tuned......... <img src = "http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=262610">
Of note is that their seems to be some relative complacency in current VIX readings when viewed with past readings as a mark. definitely in the lower part of previous ranges on the VIX. <img src = "http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=262731">